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NCAA College Football 2006 Week 4 Picks
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Fearless Rick's NCAA College Football Week 4 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | 9/19/06
For games of 9/21 - 9/23/06
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
After a nice rebound to 7-5 ATS last week with some important wins, this week pales by comparison. Unlike last week's dynamic confrontations between ranked teams, the pickings this week are fewer and with less flavor. Still, there are enough good games to keep interest high. As we get into the fall schedules, schools begin to position themselves for the bowl run. This week's games may seem minor on the surface, but any upsets will have major implications.
Thursday, September 21
7:30 pm Virginia at Georgia Tech (-17, 39) - The Yellow Jackets should have plenty with which to sting the hapless Cavaliers. After an opening loss to Notre Dame, Ga Tech has rebounded nicely with a couple of convincing wins - 38-6 over Samford and 35-20 over a pretty good Troy team.
Virginia is a team going in the wrong direction. Their only win was by 1 point over Wyoming, at home. The losses were to Pitt and Western Michigan. While the defense is actually pretty good, the offense is the main concern, having scored only 3 TDs in 3 games and averaging just over 50 yards rushing. Against Tech's tough defense, that's just not going to get it done.
Prediction: Yellow Jackets 28 Cavaliers 6
12:00 pm Wisconsin at Michigan (-14, 44 1/2) - After putting a pretty good thumping on Notre Dame, visions of major bowl games are dancing about the heads of the Wolverine players and it's not even October. What Michigan has to avoid here is overconfidence and the potential for coming up flat against the Badgers. For Wisconsin, this is just about the biggest game of the year, as they don't play Ohio State this season and have games against Penn St. and Iowa down the road in November.
One should note that the Badgers beat Michigan last season, 23-20, though that game was on Wisconsin turf. The Badgers have rolled up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and they have a versatile, accurate QB in Jon Stocco leading a retooled offense. The caveat is that the Badgers have played well against so-so competition and have won all three of their games handily.
Michigan may be better, even though they are roughly the same team that finished last season at 7-5. Don't expect the Wolverine offense to light it up like they did against the Irish, and plan on seeing Wisconsin frequently in Michigan territory with freshman RB P.J. Hill (three straight 100-yard efforts) and Stocco leading the charge.
Prediction: Michigan 24 Wisconsin 17
The Big Ten, after Ohio State and Michigan, is pretty much a toss-up between Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue, so winning games like this become very important in order to at least get a shot at the top two.
Last season, the Golden Gophers did it with the running of Laurence Maroney, but he's now in the NFL, so the offense has shifted to a more balanced attack. Bryan Cupito tossed 5 TD passes against Temple last week, and unknown running backs Amir Pinnix and Alex Daniels share rushing duties. Neither of these teams plays defense well though the Gophers actually look like they're trying, so one can expect plenty of scoring from both squads.
Prediction: Golden Gophers 45 Boilermakers 35
This will be no picnic for Louisville, especially after bombing Miami 31-7 last Saturday. Not only will they be on the road facing a team which has not gotten so much as a mention on the national scene, they will be doing so without starting running back Michael Bush and QB Brian Brohm, who underwent surgery after the Miami game and is expected to be out 4-6 weeks.
The ball will be in the hands of freshman QB Hunter Cantwell, who replaced Brohm last week and responded with 113 yards and a TD pass. The running-back-by-committee may actually play to the Cardinals, as they can shuffle in fresh legs from 4 or 5 backs who cumulatively are averaging over 6 yards per carry.
Louisville is very deep and unusually tough defensively. Through 3 games, they've only allowed 5 TDs and average under 300 yards allowed.
Kansas State will have to continue to play stoic defense (they haven't allowed an offensive TD in their last two games) if they hope to win this or even stay close. Their most recent win - 23-7 over Marshall - was impressive. Marshall's only score came on a 17-yard return of a blocked punt while the Thundering Herd was held to just 182 yards of offense.
This may not be the high-scoring blowout that many expect, though Louisville certainly looks to be the better team, even without a couple of key starters.
Prediction: Cardinals 27 Wildcats 16
The Middies have picked right up where they left off, winning their first three games, impressively smashing up Stanford last week, 37-9. The Midshipmen rely almost exclusively on their power option running game and will likely lead the nation in ground yardage. They are currently 2nd, 7 yards behind West Virginia with Michigan State a distant third, more then 250 yards behind.
The Tulsa attack is more balanced and relies on the passing of QB Paul Smith. Despite a week 2, 49-21 loss to a solid BYU team (the Cougars lost in OT to Boston College last week), Tulsa is still a force with which to be reckoned.
Navy is going to grind out 300+ yards in this game as nobody has yet to find a way to slow them down, but Tulsa will hang in and are certainly good enough to upset here. In the end, Navy's return game and turnovers will likely be decisive, with the Middies ending up with a bit of national recognition.
Prediction: Midshipmen 34 Golden Hurricane 24
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
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