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NCAA College Football 2006 Week 4 Picks
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Fearless Rick's NCAA College Football Week 4 Picks - Late Games
Rick Gagliano | 9/19/06
All times Eastern - Click here for early Thursday & Saturday games
Saturday, September 23
3:30 pm Arizona St. at California (-7 1/2, 57) - The Cal Bears took their opening-day beating by Tennessee like men and responded with solid outings against Minnesota and Portland State, winning 42-17 and 42-16 respectively. They get the home edge here as conference play begins, and this contest is huge. The Sun Devils are ranked and ready, with the usual offensive mindset (QB Rudy Carpenter is 7-1 as a starter and the Sun Devils were 2nd nationally in total offense in 2005), but with a strong defense this season as well. Arizona has recorded 17 sacks in lopsided wins over Northern Arizona, Nevada and Colorado.
The ASU defense will have to contend with Cal quarterback Nate Longshore and his favorite target, DeSean Jackson, who already has five grabs for TDs this season after hauling in 7 scores in 2005. The QB situation was the biggest change for the Golden Bears, with Longshore replacing inconsistent Joe Ayoob on a seemingly permanent basis.
This could easily turn into a shootout, in which case the Sun Devils will keep pace and an errant pass or fumble could turn things in their favor. Overtime is a distinct possibility for two teams seeking to dethrone USC in the volatile PAC-10.
Prediction: Golden Bears 41 Sun Devils 38
Both teams have solid defensive units, though the Crimson Tide may be nearly as good as last year's which led the nation in scoring defense. They currently are allowing an average of just 11.3 points per game, and Arkansas doesn't seem to be the kind of team that will make deep penetration on them.
Arkansas has been near the bottom of the SEC heap for a few years now, and while not much was expected from Alabama last year, they managed to go 10-2, ending the season with a wicked defensive effort against Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. A win here could put them on the national radar once again.
Prediction: Crimson Tide 24 Razorbacks 10
Penn State will have their hands full with Troy Smith throwing to Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. When not passing, Smith will be handing off to capable Michael Pittman and speedy Chris Wells, but even more damage may be done on defense, as the Buckeyes have retooled quickly, replacing 9 defensive starters from last season.
Last year, Penn State beat Ohio St. in Happy Valley, 17-10, and many of the players for the Buckeyes remember that as one of the games that kept them from a national championship shot. The other was a loss to Texas and that has already been avenged. The Buckeyes are loaded on both sides of the ball and this has all the makings of a severe whipping for Paterno's troops.
Prediction: Buckeyes 42 Nittany Lions 17
The Rebels, dodging conference play for a week, is not a good SEC representative. They opened with a 28-25 win over Memphis, but have been denied in their last two, losing 34-7 to Missouri and 31-14 to Kentucky, both on the road.
Having home field won't serve to be much of an advantage here as the Deacons have a balanced attack and a huge edge on defense. Wake Forest is allowing only 12 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 30.
Prediction: Demon Deacons 24 Rebels 14
With Notre Dame surprisingly short in the secondary, expect Spartan QB Drew Stanton to take advantage, as he has in three wins over Idaho, Eastern Michigan and Pitt. The last game, at Pitt, was somewhat of a statement, as Stanton threw for 2 TDs and ran for another in a 38-23 thumping. The Irish will also have a way to stop Javon Ringer, who scampered for 156 yards on 15 carries against the Panthers.
Notre Dame will probably not be so completely overwhelmed, as they were against Michigan, but they have definite weaknesses and must endeavor to control the ball and the clock, because the Spartans' offense can put up lots of points. Last weekend was a turning point for both of these teams, but for Notre Dame, the loss was devastating and they are not likely to recover quickly.
Prediction: Spartans 34 Fighting Irish 24
All times Eastern - Click here for early Thursday & Saturday games
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