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2008 NCAA College Football Top 25 Preview
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Fearless Rick's 2008 NCAA Top 25
Rick Gagliano | 7/29/2008
NCAA TOP 25 - Predicted order of finish
After being beaten handily in both 2006 and 2007 by SEC schools which were crowned national champions (Florida and LSU), the Buckeyes have much to prove and that early-season trip to the coast will be very telling. Since that is such a pivotal game (it may prove to be Ohio State's or USC's only loss) it should be noted that USC will have only one game prior to that while the Buckeyes will have played twice. Also, the Buckeyes are returning 9 players on offense and 9 on defense.
Ohio State averaged 32 points per game in '07, but their defense was #1 in the nation in both yards allowed (225.3) and points (10.7). They may have an edge in September over USC's offense, which had to replace six starters (see below).
After the USC game, the next key tests are all in conference. October 4 at Wisconsin and November 15 at Illinois will be crucial. Of course, the Big 10 regular season finishes with the traditional dogfight with Michigan, though this year the Buckeyes are at home.
On offense, QB Todd Boeckman and RB Chris Wells both return as do the wideouts, Brian Robiske and Brian Hartline. The defense boasts All American James Laurenitis and a secondary that may be the best in the nation, with Donald Washington and Malcolm Jenkins at the corners.
If Ohio State beats USC early on, look for the Buckeyes to make their third straight trip to the national title game.
The defense, which yielded 21 points per game in 2007, should improve significantly by the time they reach the SEC schedule in October. With an 11-2 finish in 2007, Georgia needs to take the next step to the elite national championship scene.
What hurt the Bulldogs in '07 were a pair of relatively early losses - a 16-12 defeat at the hands of Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks, and a complete flattening at Tennessee, a 35-14 loss in which they were completely outplayed, outclassed and outhit.
That game lit a fuse under the collective Georgia team, as they went 7-0 the rest of the way, knocking off four ranked teams in the process - Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Hawaii. What's exciting is that they won those four games by a combined 79 points, an average margin of nearly 20.
While the defense will almost certainly become one of the best in the country, the offense doesn't have to do much except keep the ball in the hands of QB Matthew Stafford (194-348, 2523 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs) and running back Knowshon Moreno (1334 yards rushing).
Schedule-wise, the SEC is always daunting, but two early games - a revenge rematch at South Carolina on September 13, and a non-conference trip to Arizona State the following week - have the menacing look of championship-killer. It doesn't get any easier after that, with an SEC lineup that goes Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at LSU, Florida, at Kentucky and at Auburn. Whew! If the Bulldogs are up to the task, they're likely going to meet some Tigers (either Auburn or LSU) in the SEC championship, a game they'll have to win if they expect to play for a national title.
Quarterback Sam Bradshaw returns at QB after a stellar effort in 2007, leading the Sooners to an 8-0 record in the Big 12 and a dominating, 38-17, conference championship game win over upstart Missouri. He'll have plenty of targets in the pro offense, though the Sooners may emerge as one of the country's paramount running teams with returnee DeMarco Murray and prospect Jermaine Calhoun sharing time in the backfield.
The Sooners can win football games either with stifling defense or stinging offense, and more often than not, it's a combination of the two which leads to lopsided scores.
Oklahoma ranked 3rd nationally in points scored (43.4) and 9th in points allowed, at 18.2. With that 25.2 point spread, there's little doubt about this team's ability.
The defense will stuff the run completely with one of the best front lines in the nation. Holes to be filled are at linebacker and in the secondary, where two new faces will be playing cornerback, but if it becomes a problem, there is plenty of talent on the Sooners' bench to step up.
The 2008 schedule includes few real testers, and all of them are at home. On September 6, they host Cincinnati, a powerhouse from the Big East, and they get Texas (at neutral site, Dallas) and Kansas on consecutive Saturdays, October 11 and 18, and host Texas Tech on November 22. The only tough road game may be late in the season, on November 8 at Texas A&M, a team they blasted, 42-14 in 2007, but the Aggies are usually solid on their own turf.
Following last season's 11-3 campaign, the Sooners could easily go all the way through their regular season undefeated and since they're likely to be a prohibitive favorite to win the Big 12 championship, a shot at #1 is clearly within their grasp.
Last season, the Trojans were 8 points from a perfect season, finishing with an 11-2 record with both losses coming in PAC-10 play. The stunning, 24-23, October 6 home loss to Stanford was followed up with a sobering 24-17 defeat at Oregon.
But that was it. USC reeled off five straight wins, culminating with a 49-17 trouncing of Illinois in the Rose Bowl. If any team deserved to be ranked #1 outside the horribly flawed BCS machinery, it was USC. They were 4th nationally on defense (15.9 ppg), though well down the list offensively at 31.3.
The Trojans return just 5 starters on offense, including QB John David Booty and running back Chauncey Washington, but the middle of the line remains intact which will be a plus. Both offensive tackle positions should be filled by returning players - either Butch Lewis or Charles Brown, and the recruiting class may surprise.
Mark Sanchez will take over as the QB, unless Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain gets the nod. There are a variety of running backs from which to choose, and two or three may rotate at the position. There are few worries on defense, despite having to fill five positions. The Trojans are loaded with hungry, mean run stuffers and pass defenders. They may be even better than last year.
The schedule befits a top-flight program, with emphasis on the early part of the season. Fans will know how good this team is after just 4 games, because they're likely to win the final eight. The season opens on August 30 at Virginia, and two weeks later, USC hosts Ohio State. Then, it's right into conference play with a game at Oregon State on September 27 and a home game against another PAC-10 powerhouse, Arizona State, on October 11.
Should USC survive the first four games unscathed, they will challenge for all the glory. However, the offense may not be as efficient as in the past with Sanchez at QB. The season may be more challenging than most for coach Carroll.
There are 8 players returning for an offense which only average 24.3 points in 2007, but there will be some shuffling around of key players at the skill positions. The quarterback position may fall to either incumbent Kodi Burns or JC transfer Chris Todd, or both. Running back Brad Lester and Brad Tate could share time in the backfield, though Lester may end up as a slot receiver or tight end, depending on formations.
Electrifying Mario Fanin will make the move to receiver a full time duty, after spending most of 2007 alternating between wideout and running back. All five starters return to the offensive line.
All of these moves comes in the wake of Tommy Tuberville hiring offensive coordinator Tony Franklin at the end of last season. Franklin, an adherent of the spread offense, will use multiple sets and player combinations to compete with the likes of Florida, LSU, Arkansas, as the SEC brand of football becomes even more wide open.
Six starters return to a stingy defense that ranked 6th nationally in 2007. There are almost no weaknesses, except in nickel or dime packages as the Tigers aren't very deep in the secondary. The d-line is top notch and the linebackers have great range, speed and hitting ability.
The schedule is easy until SEC play begins on September 20 against LSU. Auburn has the luxury of hosting this key SEC West tilt, and a win there should propel them to the Conference Championship game in December. Other key games are an out-of-conference game at West Virginia on October 23 and a possible preview of the SEC championship with Georgia (at Auburn) on November 15. There is so much talent on this team, along with exceptional coaching, that the Tigers could be a real surprise in 2008.
After finishing 2007 at 9-4, the program should take a major step forward into national prominence as they return 7 starters on each side of the ball. 10th in the nation on defense last year (18.3 ppg), that's a real luxury for the potent offense which produced a school record 430 points, an average of 34.2 per outing in '07.
While there are holes to fill along the line, it's not a major concern, as there are many returnees and prospects to make the o-line more than adequate.
Defensively, Clemson has an outstanding secondary and a top-flight defensive line with some concern at linebacker. Look for #2 national prospect DaQuan Bowers to make an immediate impact at defensive end. He's 6-5 and 265 pounds of quarterback eater.
The schedule is relatively soft for the Tigers, who play Alabama in the season opener on August 30 in Atlanta. With the ACC in somewhat of a down year, the crucial stretch is from October 9 to November 8, at Wake Forest, then home against Georgia Tech before two more road games at Boston College and Florida State. Notably absent is Virginia Tech, which helps Clemson overall. The Hokies are always a tough out.
The defense was somewhat of a liability in 2007, but the Tigers ranked 7th in the nation in scoring (40.0), winning most of their games simply by putting the ball in the end zone more often than their opponents. News that nine starters return from last season may be seen as either a positive or a negative, depending on whether or not the returnees improve and how many newcomers can step up and make the defense better.
Scheduling definitely is in favor of the Tigers, though their August opener, in which they host Juice Williams and the Fighting Illini, looms a real threat to an undefeated season. Should the Mizzou pass that test, they should cruise until the Big 12 opener on October 4 at Nebraska, a team they demolished in '07, 41-6. They won't have to contend with either Texas Tech or Oklahoma until possibly the Big 12 Championship game in December, if they can beat Kansas for a second straight season on November 29, the regular season finale for both teams. Those two should vie for the North division title, though much can change during the course of the season.
With the schedule and a returning Heisman candidate in Daniels working in their favor, look for the Tigers to return to a BCS bowl game and possibly a shot at the national championship.
The Gators return 7 players on offense and 8 on defense for coach Urban Meyer, but one concern is that SEC defenses have caught up to Florida's version of the spread offense and the lack of a surprise element puts Florida at a disadvantage.
They do, however, possess some of the best talent in the conference. Along with Tebow, there's speedy Percy Harvin either out of the backfield or as a receiver, and wideout Riley Cooper, who will likely lead the team in receptions and touchdown catches.
On the opposite side of the ball, while the line is solid and the linebacking excellent, Florida's secondary could be in for big trouble against some pass-happy teams like Hawaii (season opener, August 30), at Tennessee (Sept. 20) and Georgia (November 1). If the secondary isn't up to the task, the Gators could lose 4 or even 5 games. They ended last season at 9-4, but all of the losses were fairly close. Still, the SEC is completely loaded this year and the Gators will have to play better defensively to make the grade.
Florida allowed 24.2 points per contest in 2007 and gave up 2988 yards passing. Certain SEC offensive coordinators may be salivating at a chance to play in the swamp. Their overwhelming talent on offense is Florida's greatest strength.
With coach Brian Kelly, who built a powerhouse program at Western Michigan, back for his second year, expect Cincy to become one of the elite programs in the country.
The burning question is whether the NCAA will grant QB Ben Mauk a sixth year of eligibility or will Demetrius Jones - a Notre Dame transfer - step into the starting role. Jones started the season for Notre Dame in '07, but never wore the Irish uniform after a 33-3 dismantling by Georgia Tech.
Outside of that controversy, the receivers are talented sophomore Marcus Barnett and senior Dominick Goodman. Both did well in '07 and are back for more. The running game is unsettled and not very promising, but the talent in the wideouts is very deep. Six starters return to the offense.
The defense, which also returns 6 starters is rock solid, but especially talented in the secondary with Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith at the corners. Some impact may come from Minnesota transfer Alex Daniels, who should get the nod at one end position, and run stuffer Terrill Byrd, who anchors an effective d-line.
The schedule is a tricky one for the Bearcats, especially that early September 6 clash in Norman with the Sooners. Should Cincy play well or even upset and win, look for them to possibly run the table in the depleted Big East. They also close the regular season with an oddity, at Hawaii, on December 6.
Quarterback Juice Williams leads 6 returning starters for the offense. Super tailback Rashard Mendenhall left a year early for the NFL, but Daniel Dufrene and others should complement Williams in the spread offense. The passing attack is loaded with veterans, notably Arrelious Benn who earned Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors in 2007.
The defense returns 7 starters to a very capable bunch. The secondary is sound, and the line may prove to be a devastating weapon, loaded with big, fast monsters like 270 lb. end Will Davis and four rotating tackles. The defense allowed 19.5 points per game in 2007. Look for that to drop into the low teens this season.
The schedule is front-end loaded, with Missouri on tap for the opener in St. Louis. The Illini open Big Ten play at Penn State and at Michigan, September 27 and October 4. Other big games come October 25 at Wisconsin and November 15, when the Illini host the Buckeyes.
If Zook's troops continue to evolve into an SEC-type team, they will challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten title. While the defense looks to be one of the nation's best, if the offense finds ways to get the ball to their talented receivers, look out.
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1. Ohio State - The Buckeyes will have every opportunity to prove they are capable of being national champions in 2008, starting with a September 13 tilt at USC.
2. Georgia - After their defense stifled Hawaii and took care of business in the Sugar Bowl, 41-10, the Bulldogs appear to be the class of not only the SEC, but the entire nation. Returning 7 offensive players and 8 on defense, the Bulldogs have what appears to be one of the most balanced and experienced teams in the country.
3. Oklahoma - Once again, Bob Stoops has assembled a team capable of challenging for the national championship. Returning nine players on offense and 6 on defense, there are few holes - if any - on either side of the ball.
4. USC - People around the country are probably getting used to seeing the Trojans at or near the top of the national polls, and for good reason: under head coach Pete Carroll, they've developed into one of the best programs in the nation. Everybody wants to play for USC and the talent pool in California is deep.
5. Auburn - With so many players departing from LSU's 2007 national championship team - including the departure of troubled Ryan Perrilloux - Auburn should emerge as the team to beat in the SEC West. The Tigers went 9-4 last season, knocking off Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to end on a high note.
6. Clemson - These Tigers are the class of the ACC in 2008, featuring possibly the best backfield in the country with QB Cullen Harper and running backs C. J. Spiller and James Davis.
7. Missouri - After a 12-2 season (7-1 in the Big 12), the Missouri Tigers are looking for another high-octane season out of senior quarterback Chase Daniels, who last season threw for 4,306 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Tigers' no-huddle offense relies heavily on Daniels' athletic ability and his knowledge of opposing defenses and that formula should work well in 2008. The offense returns six starters, including uncoverable wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. When Daniel isn't running with the pigskin, he'll have plenty of options in Mizzou's wide open spread offense.
8. Florida - After winning the Heisman trophy last year, what will Tim Tebow do for an encore? The talented junior leads the Gators into a season full of high expectations, but a challenging schedule and an iffy defense.
9. Cincinnati - The only Big East team to crack the Top Ten, the Bearcats can emerge to be the beast of the East, sporting a defense which just got better and better through 2007 and could be a nightmare for opposing teams in 2008. They finished the season allowing 16.8 points per game, tied with fellow Big East foe, Connecticut, for 11th nationally. On offense, the Bearcats were 14th in scoring offense, at 36.8 per game.
10. Illinois - The upside for Ron Zook's troops is virtually unlimited in 2008 after making it to the Rose Bowl last year. Despite losing badly to USC (49-17), the Illini need not hang their heads as the Trojans were a legitimate top 5 team.
