NCAA College Football 2009 Top 25 Preview 1-10

2009 NCAA College Football Top 25 Preview

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Fearless Rick's 2009 NCAA Top 25

Rick Gagliano | 8/8/2009

NCAA TOP 25 - Predicted order of finish

1 Florida Gators - There may have been some debate in 2008 over which was the better conference - the Big 12 or the SEC - but Florida left little doubt about which was the best team in the nation, as the Gators outclassed Oklahoma in the second half of the national championship game to win going away, 24-14.

Now back for his 4th season, and seeking his third national championship, QB Tim Tebow appears headed for college football immortality as one of the most memorable players ever. Tebow is a hybrid, bred to run the spread offense. He's an accurate passer and also one of the toughest middle runners in the country. Playing behind a powerful line with offensive weapons all around him, he leads the most fearsome attack in the SEC and maybe in the country.

Playing under Urban Meyer, who in four seasons has turned Florida nation into a dynasty, Meyer will also be seeking his third national title in the last four years. His 44-9 record with the Gators is even more impressive considering that in each of the two championship seasons - 2006 and 2008 - the Gators lost only once.

What's even scarier is that the Gators return all 11 of their defensive starters, and the only major loss to the offense was Percy Harvin, who bolted to the pros. The only potential weakness may be at wideout, though the recruiting by the Gators was focused on getting good athletes, so it's near certain that some of the freshmen or non-starters will emerge as stars.

Speaking of stars, besides Tebow, the backfield is loaded with returnees Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey, both of whom could easily make the switch to slot receiver in Meyer's system.

With the defense retuning intact and very deep, after a season in which they were ranked 4th nationally in scoring defense and 9th overall, the offense does not have to be prodigious in order for the Gators to achieve success. As rugged as the SEC schedule may be, the toughest spots may turn out to be walkovers for this powerhouse team. 10/10 at LSU is one of those games, but the Gators only have 3 other away games, plus the neutral site in the annual tilt with Georgia. Besides the conference foes, the only other true test might be their regular season finale against Florida State.

Should the Gators go undefeated, they will play for the SEC championship in December and the national title in January. As well-coached and deep as the Gators appear, they have to be the top preseason pick to go all the way.

2 Texas Longhorns - Did the Longhorns get "jobbed" by the conference rules which kept them out of the national championship game last year? Well, they did lose just one game, at Texas Tech, and they did beat Oklahoma on neutral ground, and they did win their bowl game, 24-21, over Ohio State, while the Sooners were losing to the Gators, soooooo.... well, maybe they were the best team in the nation. We'll never know.

Entering the 2009 season, the Longhorns know that nothing less than perfection will suffice in the BCS scheme of things and they have the potential to win every time they step onto a football field, anywhere in the country. The talent level should be the same as last season, if not better, as the Longhorns return 7 players on both offense and defense.

QB Colt McCoy returns for his senior season and the Heisman watchers will be all over him. He's an exceptional passer, about to break almost all of the Texas records he doesn't already hold, and has a nice crew of receivers around him. The only weak point for the Longhorns might be at running back, where no player has secured the starting tailback position, though there are plenty of talented recruits vying for it.

When it comes to defense in the Big 12, the emphasis is on run-stuffing, if only because most of the teams in the conference are so pass-happy running the spread. Texas excelled against the run (3rd in the nation) and held their own against some of the best offenses ever seen in college football. They'll be better than they were in 2008.

The schedule doesn't have many soft spots, but a few things look promising for the Longhorns. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are gone from Texas Tech, whom they meet early, on September 19, at Texas. Middle to late October will be the time this team either rises to the occasion or flops, as they renew their rivalry with Oklahoma on 10/17, then play at Missouri and at Oklahoma St. the following two weeks. If they get through that stretch, Texas will have a secure path to the national championship game.

3 Mississippi Rebels - Surprising everybody in 2008 were the Rebels of Ole Miss. They were, after all, the only team to beat the Florida Gators (31-30, on a blocked extra point), but losses to Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Alabama put them at 3-4 in mid-October. The Rebels ended the season strong, however, winning their last six, including a 47-34 whacking of Texas Tech in a memorable Cotton Bowl.

This is a team poised on the precipice of greatness, with 6 returnees on offense and 8 on defense, which is what the SEC is all about. Since the Gators are in the SEC East, and the Rebs in the West, a showdown in the conference championship seems likely. Should Jevan Snead - one of the craftiest QBs in the country - and his offense continue to make strides, these guys could be headed to the national championship, because the defense will be one of the top units in the nation.

Snead is a junior and has a wealth of talent surrounding him, including 6 of the top 7 receivers from last year. The Rebels also have a two-headed running attack, with Brandon Bolden and Cordera Eason in the backfield.

The defense could be the best in the SEC if the secondary holds up. The d-line is huge, fast and deep with players itching to get their hands on oppsing quarterbacks and running backs. Playing offense against Ole Miss in 2009 will be an experience many players may wish to forget. These guys come in waves and wreak havoc in opponents' backfields. This unit showed their potential near the end of last season when they shut down Auburn 17-7, held LSU to 13 points and shut out Mississippi State, 45-0, to close out their regular season. The 34 points allowed in their bowl win over Texas Tech was an accomplishment in and of itself. Only Oklahoma allowed the Red Raiders fewer points (21).

The schedule is very favorable for the Rebels to go undefeated. They don't have to play Florida unless they meet in the SEC title game, and they catch Alabama, Arkansas and LSU at home. Games at South Carolina (9/24) and at Vanderbilt (10/3) have revenge written all over them.

After the 2007 season, Houston Nutt took over as head coach with the intention to make the Rebels competitive in the conference. He did that in one year (8-4) and should have higher aspirations which will become apparent in 2009.

4 Ohio State Buckeyes - The biggest game of the season won't be the normal conference and regular season closeout at Michigan (11/21), but a September 12 meeting with the USC Trojans, and this could be the year that the Buckeyes come out on top. Last year, they were spanked, 35-3, but the game was at USC, so expect coach Jim Tressel to put extra emphasis on that contest. The reasons the Buckeyes can win is that their defense will be one of the best in the country (7 returning starters) and the potential for QB Terrelle Pryor to emerge as a Vince Young-type player.

Pryor has the wheels for sure, and if he develops into an accurate passer, the Buckeyes will be impossible to beat. The issue for Ohio State is to develop not only Pryor, but a string of new receivers, since the two Brians - Robiskie and Hartline - both bolted to the NFL. Running back Chris Wells also is gone, but Dan Herron and Brandon Saine should provide a thunder and lightning approach out of the backfield.

The Buckeyes are very deep up front on defense, and that should make running against them a real chore. The linebackers are an unproven bunch, but the secondary should also be one of the best in the country. This is a top three defense no matter which way you slice it, unless injuries take an unexpected toll.

Key games, other than the USC tilt, are the final three of the Big 10 season - at Penn State, home for Iowa and at Michigan. If the Buckeyes beat the Trojans, the Penn St. and Iowa games will get all the attention, as Michigan is still maybe a year away from being competitive in the conference. This Buckeye team could go all the way and almost surely will finish with 10 or more wins and a BCS bowl bid.

5 USC Trojans - As usual, the Trojans are the choice to win the PAC-10 conference, but this team has always aimed higher under the tutelage of Pete Carroll, who is remarkably 88-15 over the past 8 years. Remarkable in that the Trojans have averaged nearly 2 losses per season in that time. They went 12-1 last year and might have been the best team in the country, though the BCS ranking system disallowed them from the championship game. There's little doubt that USC will be in the Top 5 most of 2009 and could easily grab the national title.

The Trojans probably had, in 2008, the best defense in the country, limiting opponents to 10 points or less in 10 of their 13 games. Theeir only loss was to Oregon State, 27-21, and those 6 points denied them a chance at another national title. Because the defense was so loaded, USC returns only 3 players on that side of the ball, and there are many large shoes to fill, particularly all of the linebacking spots and most of the line and secondary positions. They will be good, but not as good as in 2008.

Also leaping to the NFL was QB Mark Sanchez, which left the spot open for sophomore Aaron Corp to grab. He will be the starter - though he's battling injuries right now - come September. If he goes down or doesn't perform, look for either true freshman Matt Barkley or transfer Mitch Mustain to take the reins.

With all the losses on defense, the offense will have to carry the load much more than they did in 2008 and that could be a problem in games at Ohio State (9/12), Cal (10/3) and Oregon (10/31). The Trojans could make it all the way to the top, but an undefeated season is probably not going to happen. They could, if the defense is only ordinary, slip below the top 10 and even lower, but Carrol's record is enough to engender a great deal of confidence.

6 Alabama Crimson Tide - Nick Saban returned the Crimson Tide to the kind of team from their former glory days under legend Bear Bryant with a crushing defense and an undefeated record all the way to the SEC title game. That's where the inexperience and lack of depth on offense took its toll, as the Tide finished up 2008 with a pair of losses, 31-20, to Florida in the SEC championship game and 31-17 to Utah in the Sugar Bowl.

Saban and the Alabama hopeful aren't looking back, however, as they have their sights set again upon winning the SEC West with an offense which will barely resemble the one they used last year. While there will be emphasis on stuffing the ball down opponents' throats with their big offensive line and a bevy of new running backs to go with established runner Mark Ingram, the Tide will be throwing downfield more often, especially to wideout Julio Jones, who burst into college football stardom as a freshman in 2008.

The question is whether QB Greg McElroy can deliver under pressure. He's a junior, but has very little actual playing time and he'll have to step up. Look for Alabama to develop him gradually, not putting too much pressure on him to carry the team. If he is successful, the Tide may emerge as a real threat to upset Florida in the powerful SEC, probably the best conference in the country.

On defense, eight starters return, including most of the front 7, which created a great deal of havoc in opposing backfields last year. The 'Bama defense is virtually impossible to run against, as they have huge Terrence Cody at nose tackle, who takes up nearly all of the middle at 365 pounds and is an almost automatic double team. Playing in a 3-4 scheme forces foes into throwing more than they'd like, and right into the Alabama scheme of things.

Saban will get great things out of this group and will be a national championship contender. On the road to the title are many obstacles, however, beginning with their season opener against Virginia Tech on 9/3, a date at Ole Miss (10/10) their regular season finale at Auburn and hopefully, a meeting with the winner of the SEC East for the conference championship.

7 Oklahoma State Cowboys - Senior QB Zac Robinson will try to improve upon Oklahoma State's 9-4 record of 2008 and join the elite teams in the Big 12. They have the weapons on offense with which to compete at a high level, ranked 6th nationally in total offense in 2008, and they return 7 of 11 players from the starting offense. The challenge is to find other receivers to go with superstar Dez Bryant, who will get plenty of mention in Heisman discussions as one of the nation's best wideouts.

The Cowboys will run out of the spread offense, and it almost seems as though that design was invented at OSU, considering how easily the parts fit together under coach Mike Gundy.

Like most powerhouse Big 12 teams, the defense isn't exactly what one would call a stopper. The Cowboys played what looked at times like an NFL prevent defense in 2008, with quarterbacks allowed an eternity to find targets streaking downfield. There probably isn't going to be much of an improvement in the secondary, but look for new defensive coordinator Bill Young to devise some schemes to free up linebackers for blitzes and slow down the other potent offenses in this conference.

A key area for Oklahoma state success is on special teams. With Perrish Cox returning kickoffs and Bryant handing punt returns, the Cowboys threaten to score every time the opponent has to give up the ball. Both have game-breaking speed and excellent instincts in the open field. Teams may be best served to kick away from either of these guys as they present serious scoring threats every time either of them gets their hands on the pigskin.

The Cowboy schedule is daunting. They open their season with Georgia on 9/3, and have key games at Texas Tech (10/10) and at home for the Longhorns (10/31) and close out the regular season at Oklahoma. Having the Sooners at the end of the season ensures - if they don't stumble badly before that - that a win at Oklahoma will at worst deny the Sooners a chance at the conference and national championships. That is what the Cowboys will be gunning for in 2009, and there's a good chance that they can exceed expectations.

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8 Boise State Broncos - A perennial dark horse, the Broncos are probably the team which has gotten their least amount of respect the past few seasons. They went 13-0 in 2006, 10-3 in 2007, and 12-1 in 2008, losing by a point, 17-16, to TCU, in the Poinsettia Bowl.

According to the pollsters and computer rankings, playing in the WAC diminishes the overall quality of this exceptional program, which is yet another reason why so many college football fans wish to see a realignment of conferences or a playoff system installed. Boise St. is a prime example of a school which deserves better bowl games, year in and year out.

The Broncos are expected to roll through their conference opponents once again, under the wise tutelage of coach Chris Petersen, who has amassed a record of 35-4 in three seasons. Six starters return on both side of the ball and will be led by QB Kellen Moore on offense and by an experienced and deep secondary which picked off 16 passes last year.

Not dodging anybody in scheduling, the Broncos pin their hopes on the first three weeks of the season, with home games against Oregon and Miami (Ohio) and a trip to Fresno State. A road trip to Tulsa on 10/14 is another interesting matchup. Should the Broncos win all of their out-0f-conference meetings, they will once again be looking at a BCS bid, though not the national championship game. A shame, because they could go undefeated once again as they reload the talent machine.

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9 Oklahoma Sooners - Sam Bradford returns for the Sooners at QB with high hopes for 2009 after a disappointing 24-14 loss in the national championship game against Florida. Whether the Sooners actually belonged in that game is a matter of great debate still, as Texas had beaten them earlier in the season, 45-35, and won their bowl game over Ohio State, 24-21. Like Oklahoma, the Longhorns' only loss was in he conference, at Texas Tech, but the unusual tie-breaking procedures of the Big 12 (higher BCS ranking) got Oklahoma into the conference championship and on to the national title game.

If Bradford and his teammates wish to avoid repeating a similar circumstance, they'll have to beat Texas on October 17, when the two teams meet in Dallas. They also have tough road games against Oklahoma State and Missouri on successive weekends (10/24 and 10/31). If they survive that tough stretch, the Sooners can reach the conference title game once again.

Along with Bradford, both running backs return. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown are an elite duo, each of whom could rush for over 1000 yards in 2009, as they did last year. The biggest issues for Oklahoma, however, are replacing four starting linemen and most of their receiving corps, though that should not be a huge problem as Bob Stoops is one of the best recruiters in the nation.

Defensively, the Sooners are as good as can be found in the Big 12, where stopping the other guys is often an afterthought. The pace at which the Big 12 teams score (Oklahoma scored 45 or more points 11 times in 2008, and went six straight games with scores of 58 or more) there isn't much defensive backs can do except try to prevent deep scores. Defensive stops are rare in this conference, and even though Oklahoma returns 8 starters, it is by no means a strength.

It's unlikely that the Sooners will find their way back to #1 or #2 in the BCS this season. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State are gunning for them, and Texas felt cheated out of a national championship chance and seeks revenge. Two losses will be enough to derail this program, even though their offense looks to be potent. Rebuilding the line will cause problems for Bradford and the backs, if they can't provide adequate protection or open holes in opposing defenses.

10 Utah Utes - Following an undefeated season, culminating in a 31-17 Sugar Bowl beating of Alabama, the Utes (13-0 in 2008) will be hard-pressed to deliver an encore. They surely could have been considered for the national championship last season, as they rolled through their Mountain West schedule with ease, and also had wins over Michigan, UNLV and Oregon State outside the conference.

Returning only 3 starters on offense might seem like a problem to some, but the 3 returnees are all linemen, and that will be a strength in 2009. The starting QB job is up for grabs, between true freshman Jordan Wynn or JC transfer Terrance Cain. They will be joined in the backfield by RB Matt Asiata, who is big and tough, especially in the red zone. The recruiting campaign locked up some talented receivers, but until the season gets rolling, there's no way to tell how good they will be, though the coaching staff plans to throw plenty in the wide open spread offense.

Seven starters return from last year's defense, which came together in the latter part of the conference campaign, holding five straight opponents to 16 points or less, averaging 13.5 points allowed over that stretch.

Utah opens the season at home with traditional rival Utah St. on 9/3, and has notable games at Oregon (9/19) and at home against Louisville (9/26). They have to play at both TCU and Brigham Young in November, but even a split of those games may be enough for Utah to crack the top 10 and get a BCS bowl game again.

Click here for teams 11-25

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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