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NFL 2006-07 PLAYOFFS Week 2 Picks
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DTMagazine Home NFL Playoffs Week 2 - Sunday games
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Fearless Rick's NFL Playoffs Week 2 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | 1/10/07
All times Eastern - Click here for Sunday games.
Saturday, January 13
4:30 pm Indianapolis at Baltimore (-4, 42) - I don't know about you, but I hesitate to offer any number of points to Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense. As demonstrated against the Chiefs last week, they can move the ball on anybody by air or land (and probably by sea, in case it rains). You can forget the failures of the past. This Colts squad looks like they're on a mission that won't end until February 4.
The Ravens however, pose a most difficult dilemma for the Colts with the league's best defense, allowing a mere 12.4 points and 264.1 yards per game. That's downright stingy, meaning the Colts will have to earn every yard. The Ravens led the league with 28 interceptions, 6 defensive TDs and were second with 60 sacks. Considering Manning's 3 INTs last week, those stats would seem to put Baltimore in a very sweet spot.
Offensively, the Colts ranked 3rd with 26.7 ppg. The Ravens weren't far behind at 22.1 and QB Steve McNair has a variety of options after running back Jamal Lewis, including Tight End Todd Heap (73 receptions), Derrick Mason (68) and Mark Clayton (67). And you know McNair would love to get back to the Super Bowl after his last chance in 2000, when the Tennessee Titans fell a yard short of a tying touchdown.
The Colts can attack from anywhere on the field, but the Baltimore secondary will cover the receivers everywhere on the field. Since Manning isn't much of a scrambler, don't count on him to run much, though he may be prone to using his legs more often to pick up key first downs. Indy will have a very tough time running the ball, and if that happens the Ravens may be able to use different zones, blitz packages and double coverages to confuse and assault the Colts.
Baltimore is not going to keep Indy out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes, but the defense will give the Ravens' offense quality field position on at least a number of occasions. Figure at least 2 stops inside Indy's own 30, which should set up the Ravens at their own 30 or better. Any turnovers (and there will be at least a couple) are a bonus for Baltimore.
Special teams are pretty even, but Matt Stover may be better at distance than Colts' kicker Adam Vinatieri. Hitting from 48+ may be essential to victory.
The Ravens have won 4 straight and 9 of their last 10. The Colts ended the season 3-4 after a 9-0 start. And while the win over Kansas City was convincing, KC never got into the game until the 3rd quarter and by then it was over.
I still don't like having to give the Colts 4 points, but the Ravens shut-down defense should allow them to win by six.
Prediction: Ravens 23 Colts 17
The Eagles are lucky just to be here and Garcia's arm is not the weapon needed to slay the Saints. What Philadelphia needs to do is stop the run and let their secondary defend against Drew Brees and his array of options in the passing game.
That means stopping Reggie Bush. The Heisman-winning rookie is one of the most explosive players in the league already and coach Sean Payton has made good use of him while keeping RB Deuce McAllister as the primary back in the running game. Brees will also be looking to primary receivers Devery Henderson and Marques Colston. Joe Horn, who missed the last four games with a groin injury, is questionable.
The Eagles will have to stop the aerial attack without cornerback Lito Sheppard, who led the team with 6 interceptions. Sheppard dislocated an elbow against the Giants.
While the New Orleans defense isn't anything special, they won't have much to worry about. If they can contain running backs Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter, Garcia should not be able to hurt them except on scrambles.
On special teams, the Saints have an edge as well. Don't be surprised if Bush gets some chances returning punts and Philly kicker David Akers has been spotty outside 35 yards this season.
The Philly defense is really up against it here and this could get ugly if New Orleans opens up an early lead. There could be any number of trick plays utilizing all aspects of the varied Saints' offense. I was surprised the line on this game wasn't 8 or more.
These two teams met back in October, with the Saints pulling out a 27-24 win in the Superdome. But that was before McNabb was injured and Garcia took over at QB. This result should be much different.
Prediction: Saints 38 Eagles 20
All times Eastern - Click here for Sunday games
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