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NFL Pro Football 2006 Week 11 Picks
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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 11 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | 11/15/06
All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games.
Sunday, November 19
1:00 pm Atlanta at Baltimore (-4, 39.5) - 5-4 Atlanta is in for a tussle against the 7-2 Ravens who continue to win close games, though the Ravens' D has been unexpectedly shoddy over recent weeks.
The Falcons, however, have lost two straight, to Detroit and last week at home to Cleveland, 17-13. The Falcons defense is flagging and the offense inconsistent. A road trip to Baltimore is not exactly a prescription for a restorative weekend.
Prediction: Ravens 24 Falcons 14
The Texans have revitalized their defense of late, holding the Giants to 14 points on Nov. 5 in a loss, and limiting the Jaguars to 10 in a 13-10 win. It was the second time the Texans have beaten their AFC South rivals this season.
With almost no ability to throw deep, Buffalo must rely on a suspect running game and their defense to win this, but it's likely to be less than adequate. At home, the Texans look like a lock.
Prediction: Texans 27 Bills 13
This is really a tough call because the Jets are one of those teams which never seem to be out of any game. In fact, other than their 41-0 thrashing by Jacksonville in Week 5, the Jets' losses have been by 7, 7, and 3 points.
The Bears present a difficult case for the Jets, however, as Chicago is ranked 2nd in both scoring defense and offense. Statistically speaking, the Jets simply do not rate, especially on defense, where they are allowing 23 points and 371 yards per outing. They'll need to play near-perfect football to keep this one close, but the feeling is that the Bears are just on too much of a roll and looking very much like a championship-style team.
Prediction: Bears 31 Jets 16
The Saints are 3-1 in the dome and the Bengals are 2-2 in road games, but those stats, like most of the others concerning these two teams, can be pretty much dismissed. This one's a toss-up, and considering how badly the Bengals need the win, they'll have to step up here or the season is over. They should pull out a close one.
Prediction: Bengals 31 Saints 30
The roles have been reversed recently, though, as the Vikings have lost 3 straight and the Dolphins have won two in a row. Considering how streaks run, the Dolphins are just playing better football at this point and have some positives, especially their defensive effort and the play of QB Joey Harrington, who hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard, but also hasn't made game-changing mistakes.
Miami gets the nod at home.
Prediction: Dolphins 20 Vikings 10
The Patriots, who looked like they would cruise to the AFC East title just a few weeks ago, again look vulnerable after back-to-back home losses to Indy and the Jets. Mostly it's been a predictable offense and struggles by usually reliable QB Tom Brady that's led to New England's recent demise (their first 2-game losing streak since 2002) and the Packers can capitalize on those weaknesses by playing just average defense.
The Pack hasn't allowed less than 14 points in any game this year, but the Pats are pretty bruised up and Brady is listed as probable for this game with shoulder problems. New England signed Vinny Testaverde as an emergency backup, but if Brady is unable to go, they're in real trouble.
Meanwhile, Brett Favre is looking like a 16-year-old in a schoolyard game. In his last 4 games, Favre has thrown for 1020 yards, 6 TDs and only 2 INTs. Plus Ahman Green has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last three games. Upset city!
Prediction: Packers 31 Patriots 24
The Raiders at least have a plan, and that's to play tough defense and win the turnover battle. If they somehow get a lead, they could be tough. Any way you slice it, this one looks to be close.
Prediction: Raiders 17 Chiefs 14
The Steelers face the reality that their chances of making the playoffs are slim, but by running the table they could finish at 10-6 and be hailed as one of the great turn-around teams of all time. The schedule is not quite favorable for Pittsburgh, as they have two games against division-leading Baltimore, one at Cincy and another at Carolina. This is the first of two against the Browns and a must win for them.
If the Steelers are feeling the pressure, the Browns are decidedly not. There are no aspirations on this team, only the weekly grind of games and the possibility of winning some of them. With an excess of mental gymnastics in the heads of the Steelers, look for the Browns to basically step up and punch them in the face. A hard fought win for Cleveland is likely.
Prediction: Browns 20 Steelers 17
The Rams have lost four straight and need to tighten up the defense, but they will win a close game over a vastly overrated Carolina squad.
Prediction: Rams 27 Panthers 24
The Titans are near the bottom in almost all NFL stats and that's what you get when rebuilding around a rookie quarterback, even if it's Vince Young.
Speaking of Young, he's going to get a lesson in reading defenses against the Eagles, who will blitz him mercilessly and have one of the best secondaries in the league. They can't make this line big enough to provide cover for Young and the Titans.
Prediction: Eagles 38 Titans 3
Prediction: Buccaneers 27 Redskins 21
All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games
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Fearless Rick has been picking pro and college football for 25 years and you can help keep these picks FREE with a small tip.
