Saturday, March 28, 2009
Regional Finals, Elite Eight Picks
West Regional Finals, Saturday, March 28
University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
(1) Connecticut (30-4) (-6, 150) (3) Missouri (31-6) 4:40 pm EDT - Don't believe that Missouri's win over Memphis was a kind of fluke or that Memphis wasn't a high quality team. Nobody wins 27 straight without doing something right, but the Memphis Tigers ran into a bengal of another stripe in Missouri, one which pressed and contested every pass and dribble, throwing Memphis off their game. Even then, Memphis hung in, finally succumbing, 102-91, the highest-scoring game of the tournament, which says plenty about the quality of both teams.
Missouri can click on offense when it gets contributions outside of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll, which it did Thursday as J.T. Tiller whipped and whizzed through the Memphis defense like a gyroscopic genie out of its bottle. Tiller led Missouri with 23 points on 10-16 shooting and his slashing style will be paramount in getting to the tin against UConn's shot-swatting Hasheem Thabeet.
Missouri must push the ball into the lane in order to be successful against Connecticut, hoping to get Thabeet into foul trouble. That seems to be just about the only way to slow down the 7'3" center - limit his playing time to under 25 minutes - and Missouri, with Tiller, Lyons (who will be on Thabeet's hip through most of the proceedings), and Carroll, all of whom love to mix it up underneath, possesses the right kind of offense.
The Tigers should create havoc for the Huskies on defense as well, their pressure style making it difficult for UConn to get into their offense early. The Huskies are basically inept from beyond the arc, so Missouri may find some opportunity to mix up the half-court defense with box-and-one, man to man and maybe even a 2-3 zone look. That will clog the lane, and the Tigers will be a force on the boards against the statuesque Connecticut big men.
UConn's win over Purdue was an ugly thing, despite the statistical edge in most categories. While the Huskies shot a respectable 45% from the field, A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien, the two players who took the most shots, were a combined 8-for-28 and only Craig Austrie was able to hit a three-pointer, canning all three of his attempts. He's not likely to repeat that against Missouri. The Tigers will likely allow Adrien to shoot form anywhere beyond 10 feet, as he has all of the touch of a sledge-hammer on a railway line.
Long story short, Connecticut simply doesn't have enough quality pure shooters to remain competitive for long at this level. Consider their pair of losses to Pittsburgh an early warning sign that they may not be the best fit for a Final Four jumpsuit. Missouri is on a mission, and the Huskies will find their timing thrown completely off and their shooting to be wanting.
PREDICTION: Missouri 85 Connecticut 82
East Regional Finals, Saturday, March 28
TD Banknorth Garden (Boston, MA)
(1) Pittsburgh (31-4) (-2, 142) (3) Villanova (29-7) 7:05 pm EDT - Every game for Villanova seems to provide matchup difficulties and tough-to-call scenarios, but the Wildcats keep winning, increasing their margin of victory with each successive foray into the tournament - 13 over American, 20 over UCLA and 23 over Duke, possibly their most dominant performance of the season. Jay Wright's Wildcats are peaking at the right time and are ready for a real cat fight with the Panthers.
The Panthers and Wildcats met once during the Big East regular season, in the last game played at Philadelphia's Spectrum, and besides home court, the Widlcats also had the luxury of keeping Pitt insider DeJuan Blair on the bench with foul trouble for most of the game, coming away with a 67-57 win. The Wildcats won't likely find the same fortune on Saturday. Blair has been amping up his inside game and will be a rock in the lane.
Pitt has not been impressive in their first three wins, beating East Tennessee State by 10, then Oklahoma State by 8 and finally getting past Xavier by 5, thanks almost exclusively to point guard Levance Fields' heroic 3-pointer and steal and layup in the final minute. That kind of storybook ending is also not probable against the Wildcats and their steady stream of upperclassmen. All of their starters are juniors or seniors.
The Panthers will try to get offense from Sam Young, but the Villanova players have seen Sam's deft ball fakes and he'll not likely have the same measure of accommodation he's had against less-experienced foes. Fields will match up with Scottie Reynolds, who may have an edge over the shorter point guard. The Wildcats role players, Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark, Reggie Redding and Corey Stokes also appear to be more in their team's flow and better able to contribute than Pitt's Tyrone Biggs, Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown.
Not that it's going to be easy (though it might be), Villanova simply is playing better than just about any other team right now and should move on to the Final Four.
PREDICTION: Villanova 75 Pitt 71
Midwest Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville (31-5) (-7, 138) (2) Michigan St. (29-6) 2:20 pm EDT - In what could be either the biggest mismatch or the biggest upset of this round, The Louisville Cardinals, champions of the Big East, tangle with the Big Ten's regular season champion, Michigan State. The Trojans have been underestimated before, but they ranked in the top 10 nationally almost all season, and did what they had to against Kansas on Friday night. Point guard Kalin Lucas stepped up in the second half and outplayed the jayhawks' Sherrod Collins, and he may have the upper hand again against Louisville's Andre McGee and Edgar Sosa, though that is where Michigan's advantages may end.
Louisville is playing at an emotionally high level, matching their outstanding talent and in Earl Clark, Terrence Williams and Samardo Samuels, probably have the best front court in the nation. If Sosa or McGee can get them the ball, they will likely be too much for the Spartans' Goran Suton, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe to handle.
Michigan State is also very young. Only one regular, Travis Walton, is a senior, while only one of Louisville's starters - Samuls, a freshman - is not an upperclassman. Both teams get after it well on defense, but Louisville is less appreciated for it than are the Spartans. Just in terms of size alone, the Cardinals should control the lane and establish a rebounding edge. If they are able to shoot anything close to 50% from the floor against Michigan State, they'll be on their way to Detroit and into the Final Four. Louisville's 103-64 dismantling of a hopelessly overmatched Arizona team in the regional semifinals sent a clear message to the remaining teams that Louisville is serious.
PREDICTION: Louisville 74 Michigan St. 59
South Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(1) North Carolina (31-4) (-7, 164) (2) Oklahoma (30-5) 5:05 pm EDT - In one of the most highly anticipated matchups of this or any tournament, Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin will go toe-to-toe in the low post. Hansbrough was last season's college player of the year, and Griffin is the leading choice for the same honor this season. Whoever survives that encounter may find themselves on the way to more glory in the Final Four.
Carolina is a perennial contender at this level, and it's no surprise that they're seven point favorites. Oklahoma doesn't get to this point often, but they have a dynamic offensive team beyond their superstar, Griffin, and they match up very well with the Tar Heels in every aspect, except possibly at point guard, where Ty Lawson is in a league of his own.
The Tar Heels have an edge in terms of margin of victory, a combined 78-51, and nobody's come closer than 14 points (LSU in the second round). That's important, because it demonstrates just how explosive North Carolina is. Oklahoma is a solid team, but if Hansbrough can keep Griffin somewhat in check, it's hard to see how the Sooners can match up for an entire 40 minutes against the Tar Heels. Besides Hansbrough and Lawson, they also have players like Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson, who can create their own shots. There's also legendary Roy Williams coaching this squad, which gives North Carolina one more huge advantage.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 91 Oklahoma 78
University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
(1) Connecticut (30-4) (-6, 150) (3) Missouri (31-6) 4:40 pm EDT - Don't believe that Missouri's win over Memphis was a kind of fluke or that Memphis wasn't a high quality team. Nobody wins 27 straight without doing something right, but the Memphis Tigers ran into a bengal of another stripe in Missouri, one which pressed and contested every pass and dribble, throwing Memphis off their game. Even then, Memphis hung in, finally succumbing, 102-91, the highest-scoring game of the tournament, which says plenty about the quality of both teams.
Missouri can click on offense when it gets contributions outside of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll, which it did Thursday as J.T. Tiller whipped and whizzed through the Memphis defense like a gyroscopic genie out of its bottle. Tiller led Missouri with 23 points on 10-16 shooting and his slashing style will be paramount in getting to the tin against UConn's shot-swatting Hasheem Thabeet.
Missouri must push the ball into the lane in order to be successful against Connecticut, hoping to get Thabeet into foul trouble. That seems to be just about the only way to slow down the 7'3" center - limit his playing time to under 25 minutes - and Missouri, with Tiller, Lyons (who will be on Thabeet's hip through most of the proceedings), and Carroll, all of whom love to mix it up underneath, possesses the right kind of offense.
The Tigers should create havoc for the Huskies on defense as well, their pressure style making it difficult for UConn to get into their offense early. The Huskies are basically inept from beyond the arc, so Missouri may find some opportunity to mix up the half-court defense with box-and-one, man to man and maybe even a 2-3 zone look. That will clog the lane, and the Tigers will be a force on the boards against the statuesque Connecticut big men.
UConn's win over Purdue was an ugly thing, despite the statistical edge in most categories. While the Huskies shot a respectable 45% from the field, A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien, the two players who took the most shots, were a combined 8-for-28 and only Craig Austrie was able to hit a three-pointer, canning all three of his attempts. He's not likely to repeat that against Missouri. The Tigers will likely allow Adrien to shoot form anywhere beyond 10 feet, as he has all of the touch of a sledge-hammer on a railway line.
Long story short, Connecticut simply doesn't have enough quality pure shooters to remain competitive for long at this level. Consider their pair of losses to Pittsburgh an early warning sign that they may not be the best fit for a Final Four jumpsuit. Missouri is on a mission, and the Huskies will find their timing thrown completely off and their shooting to be wanting.
PREDICTION: Missouri 85 Connecticut 82
East Regional Finals, Saturday, March 28
TD Banknorth Garden (Boston, MA)
(1) Pittsburgh (31-4) (-2, 142) (3) Villanova (29-7) 7:05 pm EDT - Every game for Villanova seems to provide matchup difficulties and tough-to-call scenarios, but the Wildcats keep winning, increasing their margin of victory with each successive foray into the tournament - 13 over American, 20 over UCLA and 23 over Duke, possibly their most dominant performance of the season. Jay Wright's Wildcats are peaking at the right time and are ready for a real cat fight with the Panthers.
The Panthers and Wildcats met once during the Big East regular season, in the last game played at Philadelphia's Spectrum, and besides home court, the Widlcats also had the luxury of keeping Pitt insider DeJuan Blair on the bench with foul trouble for most of the game, coming away with a 67-57 win. The Wildcats won't likely find the same fortune on Saturday. Blair has been amping up his inside game and will be a rock in the lane.
Pitt has not been impressive in their first three wins, beating East Tennessee State by 10, then Oklahoma State by 8 and finally getting past Xavier by 5, thanks almost exclusively to point guard Levance Fields' heroic 3-pointer and steal and layup in the final minute. That kind of storybook ending is also not probable against the Wildcats and their steady stream of upperclassmen. All of their starters are juniors or seniors.
The Panthers will try to get offense from Sam Young, but the Villanova players have seen Sam's deft ball fakes and he'll not likely have the same measure of accommodation he's had against less-experienced foes. Fields will match up with Scottie Reynolds, who may have an edge over the shorter point guard. The Wildcats role players, Dwayne Anderson, Shane Clark, Reggie Redding and Corey Stokes also appear to be more in their team's flow and better able to contribute than Pitt's Tyrone Biggs, Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown.
Not that it's going to be easy (though it might be), Villanova simply is playing better than just about any other team right now and should move on to the Final Four.
PREDICTION: Villanova 75 Pitt 71
Midwest Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
(1) Louisville (31-5) (-7, 138) (2) Michigan St. (29-6) 2:20 pm EDT - In what could be either the biggest mismatch or the biggest upset of this round, The Louisville Cardinals, champions of the Big East, tangle with the Big Ten's regular season champion, Michigan State. The Trojans have been underestimated before, but they ranked in the top 10 nationally almost all season, and did what they had to against Kansas on Friday night. Point guard Kalin Lucas stepped up in the second half and outplayed the jayhawks' Sherrod Collins, and he may have the upper hand again against Louisville's Andre McGee and Edgar Sosa, though that is where Michigan's advantages may end.
Louisville is playing at an emotionally high level, matching their outstanding talent and in Earl Clark, Terrence Williams and Samardo Samuels, probably have the best front court in the nation. If Sosa or McGee can get them the ball, they will likely be too much for the Spartans' Goran Suton, Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe to handle.
Michigan State is also very young. Only one regular, Travis Walton, is a senior, while only one of Louisville's starters - Samuls, a freshman - is not an upperclassman. Both teams get after it well on defense, but Louisville is less appreciated for it than are the Spartans. Just in terms of size alone, the Cardinals should control the lane and establish a rebounding edge. If they are able to shoot anything close to 50% from the floor against Michigan State, they'll be on their way to Detroit and into the Final Four. Louisville's 103-64 dismantling of a hopelessly overmatched Arizona team in the regional semifinals sent a clear message to the remaining teams that Louisville is serious.
PREDICTION: Louisville 74 Michigan St. 59
South Regional Finals, Sunday, March 29
FedExForum (Memphis, TN)
(1) North Carolina (31-4) (-7, 164) (2) Oklahoma (30-5) 5:05 pm EDT - In one of the most highly anticipated matchups of this or any tournament, Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin will go toe-to-toe in the low post. Hansbrough was last season's college player of the year, and Griffin is the leading choice for the same honor this season. Whoever survives that encounter may find themselves on the way to more glory in the Final Four.
Carolina is a perennial contender at this level, and it's no surprise that they're seven point favorites. Oklahoma doesn't get to this point often, but they have a dynamic offensive team beyond their superstar, Griffin, and they match up very well with the Tar Heels in every aspect, except possibly at point guard, where Ty Lawson is in a league of his own.
The Tar Heels have an edge in terms of margin of victory, a combined 78-51, and nobody's come closer than 14 points (LSU in the second round). That's important, because it demonstrates just how explosive North Carolina is. Oklahoma is a solid team, but if Hansbrough can keep Griffin somewhat in check, it's hard to see how the Sooners can match up for an entire 40 minutes against the Tar Heels. Besides Hansbrough and Lawson, they also have players like Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson, who can create their own shots. There's also legendary Roy Williams coaching this squad, which gives North Carolina one more huge advantage.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 91 Oklahoma 78
Labels: Connecticut Huskies, Elite 8, Missouri Tigers, Pitt Panthers, Saturday Games, Villanova Wildcats
Sunday, March 25, 2007
NCAA Matchups & Picks for Sunday, March 25
2:40 pm EDT Florida (-6.5) Oregon - Tajuan Porter has silenced a lot of critics over the short course of his Oregon career. On Sunday, he'll get the opportunity to do it again.
Porter, easily the smallest player in the tournament at 5'6", put on a giant of a performance Friday night in Oregon's 76-72 win over UNLV, hitting 8 3-pointers and totaling 33 points, tying him with Tyler Hansbrough for the high single-game mark of the tournament.
Once again, Porter and the Ducks find themselves underdogs as they match up with the reigning national champions. Florida dispatched a pesky Butler squad on Thursday, 65-57, coming from behind as they have in all three of their tournament games thus far. They will try to get off to a faster start against the quicker Ducks.
The Gators have a huge size advantage inside with Joakim Noah and Al Horford anchoring the middle. The Ducks have no real center and actually start four guards along with forward Maarty Leunen, who stands 6'8" and specializes in outside shooting. While Leunen may draw one of Florida's big men outside when the Ducks are on offense, he's going to get backed down inside against Horford along with Malik Hairston, who will likely be matched up with Noah. Stopping those two inside is Oregon's biggest problem, one which they'll likely handle by denying them the ball on defense.
It wouldn't surprise anyone to see the Ducks press off made baskets to at least slow Florida's offense. Pressure and hitting 3-pointers will be the key to Oregon's success and they will get it done as their trio of sharpshooting guards, Porter, Aaron Brooks and Bryce Taylor make a shambles of Florida's backcourt. The Gators' dream of back-to-back championships dies here.
5:05 pm EDT North Carolina (-3.5) Georgetown - The Tar Heels struggled mightily against an upset minded USC squad on Thursday before blowing the game open late and advancing. USC ran out of gas as Carolina coach Roy Williams used his deep bench to maximum advantage, outscoring the Trojans 41-22 in the second half.
Georgetown stared elimination in the face and, as time wore down, came up with a huge shot by forward Jeff Green to oust the upset-minded Vanderbilt Commodores 66-65. Green's bank shot with 2.5 seconds remaining left Vandy without enough time to get off a quality shot at the buzzer.
The Hoyas are hoping that this round will be a little less dramatic, though putting away the Tar Heels isn't going to be easy. Along with Green, the other key inside player, Roy Hibbert, will have to be on top of his game to stop the aggressive inside play of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright. It's likely that Wright and Green will match up against each other, which would be one of the best pairings of the season. Both forwards are athletic, strong and can get up on the boards. It's doubtful either will have much of an edge, and may actually end up canceling each other out.
Hibbert and Hansbrough will battle inside, and the edge goes to Hansbrough, who, though smaller, at 6'9", is more agile and mobile than the seven-foot Hibbert. If Hansbrough is able to operate on the low post, the Tar Heels could cruise to the Final Four.
In the backcourt, once again Jonathan Wallace and Patrick Ewing Jr. of the Hoyas become the wild cards. If they can provide some offense with 3-pointers and penetration, Georgetown can hang around against the much deeper Tar Heels.
North Carolina will look to get out and run, while the Hoyas will try to turn the game into a half-court mosh. If Hibbert stays out of foul trouble, Georgetown's overall length should offset Carolina's depth and book the Hoyas a trip to Atlanta.
Porter, easily the smallest player in the tournament at 5'6", put on a giant of a performance Friday night in Oregon's 76-72 win over UNLV, hitting 8 3-pointers and totaling 33 points, tying him with Tyler Hansbrough for the high single-game mark of the tournament.
Once again, Porter and the Ducks find themselves underdogs as they match up with the reigning national champions. Florida dispatched a pesky Butler squad on Thursday, 65-57, coming from behind as they have in all three of their tournament games thus far. They will try to get off to a faster start against the quicker Ducks.
The Gators have a huge size advantage inside with Joakim Noah and Al Horford anchoring the middle. The Ducks have no real center and actually start four guards along with forward Maarty Leunen, who stands 6'8" and specializes in outside shooting. While Leunen may draw one of Florida's big men outside when the Ducks are on offense, he's going to get backed down inside against Horford along with Malik Hairston, who will likely be matched up with Noah. Stopping those two inside is Oregon's biggest problem, one which they'll likely handle by denying them the ball on defense.
It wouldn't surprise anyone to see the Ducks press off made baskets to at least slow Florida's offense. Pressure and hitting 3-pointers will be the key to Oregon's success and they will get it done as their trio of sharpshooting guards, Porter, Aaron Brooks and Bryce Taylor make a shambles of Florida's backcourt. The Gators' dream of back-to-back championships dies here.
5:05 pm EDT North Carolina (-3.5) Georgetown - The Tar Heels struggled mightily against an upset minded USC squad on Thursday before blowing the game open late and advancing. USC ran out of gas as Carolina coach Roy Williams used his deep bench to maximum advantage, outscoring the Trojans 41-22 in the second half.
Georgetown stared elimination in the face and, as time wore down, came up with a huge shot by forward Jeff Green to oust the upset-minded Vanderbilt Commodores 66-65. Green's bank shot with 2.5 seconds remaining left Vandy without enough time to get off a quality shot at the buzzer.
The Hoyas are hoping that this round will be a little less dramatic, though putting away the Tar Heels isn't going to be easy. Along with Green, the other key inside player, Roy Hibbert, will have to be on top of his game to stop the aggressive inside play of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright. It's likely that Wright and Green will match up against each other, which would be one of the best pairings of the season. Both forwards are athletic, strong and can get up on the boards. It's doubtful either will have much of an edge, and may actually end up canceling each other out.
Hibbert and Hansbrough will battle inside, and the edge goes to Hansbrough, who, though smaller, at 6'9", is more agile and mobile than the seven-foot Hibbert. If Hansbrough is able to operate on the low post, the Tar Heels could cruise to the Final Four.
In the backcourt, once again Jonathan Wallace and Patrick Ewing Jr. of the Hoyas become the wild cards. If they can provide some offense with 3-pointers and penetration, Georgetown can hang around against the much deeper Tar Heels.
North Carolina will look to get out and run, while the Hoyas will try to turn the game into a half-court mosh. If Hibbert stays out of foul trouble, Georgetown's overall length should offset Carolina's depth and book the Hoyas a trip to Atlanta.
Labels: Elite 8, March Madness, NCAA Tournament
Friday, March 23, 2007
NCAA Matchups & Picks for Saturday, March 24
4:40 pm EDT Ohio State (-1) Memphis - Apparently, people are paying attention and they've come to the realization that Memphis is a pretty darn good team and also that Ohio State has been living on the edge over the past two games.
The Buckeyes' win over over Tennessee was not one that the Ohio State faithful are going to remember, having to rally from 20 points down to get the narrow win. The Tigers, on the other hand, should have plenty of confidence after their 1-point win over a very solid Texas A&M team. With that win, we now know how Memphis will react in tight games - with poise and determination.
The Tigers have now stretched their winning streak to 25 games not many have been close calls. They should be physically and emotionally ready for anything that Ohio State throws at them.
The biggest matchup in this game is going to be in the middle, where Greg Oden squares up with Joey Dorsey. Oden may have a height advantage, but nobody in this tournament has a wider, more physically imposing stature than Dorsey. Oden is listed at 7'0", 280, and Dorsey at 6'8", 260, but Dorsey is all muscle and is not going to allow Oden to settle in on the blocks.Nothing inside is going to come easy for Ohio State, and, if Oden gets in foul trouble again, it could be lights out for the Buckeyes.
Memphis also matches up well with the rest of the Ohio State squad, and again, they are going to look like the quicker players on the floor. Key players are going to be Mike Conley Jr. for the Buckeyes in his battle with Memphis point guard Andre Allen, who is a bulldog and lightning fast.
Allen will split time with the taller (6'6") Antonio Anderson, so depending on what coach Calipari wants to do with the ball - and Conley - he's got options.
Memphis also has excellent depth, something the Buckeyes do not enjoy. They are only 7 or 8 deep, whereas the Tigers usually go 9 deep and more.
Memphis has edges in experience, coaching and that 25-game win streak gives them enormous confidence. They will not be beaten. Ohio State will be heading home a week early.
7:05 pm EDT Kansas (-2) UCLA - If you like contrasting styles, look no further than this. Kansas has the hottest and one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation, but UCLA plays the stingiest and nastiest defense. If either team manages to get things going their way early, this could turn into a rout.
However, it has to be understood that Kansas has superior talent at all positions. The Jayhawks can run up and down the floor all night and all of their starters can score.
By contrast, UCLA lives and dies off limiting opponent opportunities, contesting passes and shots and solid rebounding. Their scoring almost always has to come from Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison, who also is the point guard, handling distribution. If Kansas can shut down Afflalo, they'll win this easily, it's as simple as that.
Their wing players, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Julian Wright should be able to light up the Bruins from outside and in. The inside game between Loenzo Mata and Darrell Arthur may turn out to be a standoff, but the Jayhawks have a serious edge at most of the other positions.
It's doubtful that the Bruins will hold Kansas under 65 points, which is what they'll need to do to win. Even then, as Southern Illinois found out on Thursday, holding the score down to a favorable level is no guarantee of victory as Kansas won, 61-58, with their 2nd lowest output of the season. The Jayhawks can play defense as well and they will mow down the Bruins and head to the Final Four. This one could easily turn into a double-digit rout for Kansas.
The Buckeyes' win over over Tennessee was not one that the Ohio State faithful are going to remember, having to rally from 20 points down to get the narrow win. The Tigers, on the other hand, should have plenty of confidence after their 1-point win over a very solid Texas A&M team. With that win, we now know how Memphis will react in tight games - with poise and determination.
The Tigers have now stretched their winning streak to 25 games not many have been close calls. They should be physically and emotionally ready for anything that Ohio State throws at them.
The biggest matchup in this game is going to be in the middle, where Greg Oden squares up with Joey Dorsey. Oden may have a height advantage, but nobody in this tournament has a wider, more physically imposing stature than Dorsey. Oden is listed at 7'0", 280, and Dorsey at 6'8", 260, but Dorsey is all muscle and is not going to allow Oden to settle in on the blocks.
Nothing inside is going to come easy for Ohio State, and, if Oden gets in foul trouble again, it could be lights out for the Buckeyes.Memphis also matches up well with the rest of the Ohio State squad, and again, they are going to look like the quicker players on the floor. Key players are going to be Mike Conley Jr. for the Buckeyes in his battle with Memphis point guard Andre Allen, who is a bulldog and lightning fast.
Allen will split time with the taller (6'6") Antonio Anderson, so depending on what coach Calipari wants to do with the ball - and Conley - he's got options.
Memphis also has excellent depth, something the Buckeyes do not enjoy. They are only 7 or 8 deep, whereas the Tigers usually go 9 deep and more.
Memphis has edges in experience, coaching and that 25-game win streak gives them enormous confidence. They will not be beaten. Ohio State will be heading home a week early.
7:05 pm EDT Kansas (-2) UCLA - If you like contrasting styles, look no further than this. Kansas has the hottest and one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation, but UCLA plays the stingiest and nastiest defense. If either team manages to get things going their way early, this could turn into a rout.
However, it has to be understood that Kansas has superior talent at all positions. The Jayhawks can run up and down the floor all night and all of their starters can score.
By contrast, UCLA lives and dies off limiting opponent opportunities, contesting passes and shots and solid rebounding. Their scoring almost always has to come from Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison, who also is the point guard, handling distribution. If Kansas can shut down Afflalo, they'll win this easily, it's as simple as that.
Their wing players, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Julian Wright should be able to light up the Bruins from outside and in. The inside game between Loenzo Mata and Darrell Arthur may turn out to be a standoff, but the Jayhawks have a serious edge at most of the other positions.
It's doubtful that the Bruins will hold Kansas under 65 points, which is what they'll need to do to win. Even then, as Southern Illinois found out on Thursday, holding the score down to a favorable level is no guarantee of victory as Kansas won, 61-58, with their 2nd lowest output of the season. The Jayhawks can play defense as well and they will mow down the Bruins and head to the Final Four. This one could easily turn into a double-digit rout for Kansas.
Labels: Elite 8, March Madness, NCAA Tournament
