Wednesday, March 18, 2009

 

Getting to the Final Four: A Perspective

This is the day college hoops freaks like me - and hpefully, you - must finally make that leap of faith and make your picks in whatever pool or challenge or bracket breakdown you've chosen.

The 32 first round games are a mix of easy and "forget it" choices, with the 1-16 matchups nearly automatic choices, but where everything from 3-14 on up can turn into nightmares.

I've broken down the first rounds in previous posts, so all that's left is to figure out who's going to beat who to make it to the round of 16, then 8 then the Final Four. At the end, as always, there will be a champion, and some of us will have bragging rights for a few months. OK, I've dithered long enough, so, here goes...

Midwest: I'm taking the #4 seed, Wake Forest, to knock off the #1 overall seed, Louisville, in the Regional Semifinals on Friday, March 27. Both the Cardinals and Demon Deacons have superior credentials in comparison to the other teams in the top part of this bracket. The bottom side could produce anything from #2 Michigan State to #10 USC or #11 Dayton. The mid-range seeds - #3 Kansas, #6 West Virginia and #7 Boston College - could catch a break or get hot and reach the Regional Final on Sunday, March 29.

No matter which team emerges from the bottom of the bracket, they won't have a chance against Wake Forest. The Dekes have the talent, coaching and pedigree to go all the way to Detroit.

West: There are two teams which are obvious to many in this region: Memphis and Connecticut. The Tigers and Huskies have enough leadership, coaching and history to go deep into the tournament, but when comparing the two, Memphis - with their 25-game winning streak, incredible defense and John Calipari looking for a national crown to silence Conference-USA critics - is clearly Final Four material.

The Tigers did everything but win it all last season, when Kansas produced a miracle rally in the final two minutes of the last game and Mario Chalmers hit the game-winner with no chance for Memphis to get off a retaliatory shot. Calapari is a world-class coach and author of books about basketball. The only thing missing from his resume is a national championship, and this could be his year. Everything is coming together for the Tigers at the right time and their draw at the bottom of the braket doesn't look very tough.

Their toughest games will come in the second and third round. Either Cal or Maryland could pose problems if they get hot, but Memphis will probably pummel either of them in the second half. In the regionals, Missouri looks like the most likely foe, but they don't have enough scoring to worry the Tigers much. Sure, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons are solid, but the rest of the team won't match up well. If not Missouri, either Utah State or Marquette could slip in, with the Aggies the more dangerous. Marquette is headed for an early out, and may even lose their opener to Utah St.

Once the Tigers dispatch with the their regional opponent, they're probably not going to face Connecticut. The Huskies are vulnerable to teams with strong guard play and almost anyone in their side of the bracket - BYU, Washington, Texas A&M, Miss. St., Purdue, Northern Iowa - could pull the upset. UConn won't last past the third round. Memphis will go to the Final Four to face the Midwest winner.

East: This region offers one of the easiest advances at the bottom for #2 seed Duke, which will have to get through either #3 Villanova, #7 Texas or #11 VCU, and they should reach the regional finals on Saturday, March 28. Their foe is more than likely to be the #1 seed in the region, Pitt, though #5 Florida State could hand Pitt their walking papers in the first regional game. If Florida State does that, they would give the Blue Devils one heck of a time, but, Duke has already beaten them 3 times this season, and that is an awesome advantage. If Pitt gets to the Regional Final, it could go either way. A lot of people like Pitt to win it all, but if DeJuan Blair gets into foul trouble, they are a different team. If he doesn't, they could just roll people.

I'll be hedging this bracket in my various bracket picks, but I'm really leaning toward the Blue Devils. They're easily as solid as any other team in the region, and who can doubt coach K's ability to make the Final Four. He's only been there about a gazillion times.

South: There's little doubt that North Carolina is one of the top three or four teams in the nation and they are the #1 seed. They should cruise to the Regional Final on Sunday, March 29, and probably match up with either #2 Oklahoma or #3 Syracuse, though #6 Arizona St. looms as a distinct possibility. Carolina's games will be interesting after the first round. Either LSU or Butler will play them petty hard, and they may have a real struggle if Gonzaga advances to the regionals.

Overall, however, the Tar Heels just look too talented and deep to not make it to the Final Four. If my selections are right, they could be the only #1 to make it, though Pitt could easily get there.

In the semifinals, Midwest plays West and East plays South. I like Memphis to beat Wake Forest in what could turn out to be a real pressure-cooker, and North Carolina to beat Duke, but Pitt to win it if they reach from the East. That sets up a final of either North Carolina or Pitt against Memphis, and I like the Tigers to beat either of them by 8 to 12 points.

Come Monday, April 6, the Tigers will be crowned national champions. (I hope)

Good luck to everyone with your selections. Let the games begin!

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Saturday, March 14, 2009

 

Memphis Should Get a #1 Seed

John Calipari's Memphis Tigers made it to the NCAA finals last season and after winning their 25th straight game in authoritarian fashion - whipping Tulsa, 64-39, in the Conference-USA tournament final - they deserve to receive a #1 seeding in the NCAA tournament.

Considering that they are one of the few #1 seeds in conference tournaments this season to survive, they should finally get the respect they crave. The Tigers' defense is among the best in the nation and they are as solid 1-7 as any team in the country.

Memphis sports the longest winning streak in the nation, last losing on December 20 to Syracuse and easily dispatched their toughest C-USA opponent - Tulsa - on Saturday, limiting the Golden Hurricane to 26% shooting.

Other possible #1 seeds - North Carolina, Pitt, Connecticut, Michigan State - have all suffered losses in their respective conference tournaments, so come 6;30 Sunday afternoon, expect the Memphis Tigers to be named the #1 seed in the Midwest, and, if Louisville loses to Syracuse tonight, they could be the overall #1.

It's about time. Memphis has done everything they can. Now it's up to the tournament committee.

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Saturday, February 28, 2009

 

Butler Captures Horizon; Memphis Wins 56th Straight in C-USA

The #24 Butler Bulldogs (25-4, 15-3) rallied from a 10-point deficit with under 10 minutes to go, dropping pre-season Horizon League favorite, Cleveland State, 58-56.

Willie Veasley led the Bulldogs with 16 points, earning their third straight Horizon League title. The Bulldogs will be the #1 seed when they host the league tournament, which begins on Saturday, March 7.

#5 Memphis 58, Southern Miss. 42

The Memphis Tigers (26-3, 14-0) already have the Conference-USA title, which they earned on Thursday night with a win over UAB. On Saturday, they extended the nation's longest winning streak to 20 games while winning their 56th straight conference game, easily getting by Southern Miss.

Robert Dozier led all scorers with 18 points. The Tigers have two regular season games remaining before the league tourney. After that, it's on to the big dance, probably as a #2 seed, though some believe Memphis should be a #1.

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Friday, February 27, 2009

 

Big 10: Purdue Upset, Illinois Cruises

DeShawn Sims poured in 29 points and Manny Harris contributed 27, as the Mihigan Spartans upset #16 Purdue, 87-78.

#20 Illinois won at Minnesota, 52-41, holding the Gophers to 32% shooting.

#5 Memphis won their 324,678th straight Conference-USA game, extending the nation's longest win streak to in a 71-60 win over UAB. The Tigers look like the most solid #2 NCAA seed ever.

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Monday, April 07, 2008

 

It's Kansas vs. Memphis for All the Glory

63 teams have come and gone. Now only two remain and no one can doubt that these two earned the right to the national championship.

Both Memphis and Kansas handily dispatched their Final Four opponents on Saturday. The Tigers shut down Kevin Love inside and the rest of the Bruins outside for an easy 78-63 victory over UCLA. Kansas blitzed the Tar Heels early and late - with an 18-0 first half run and a 13-0 second half finish - to slaughter a disorganized and disheveled North Carolina team, 84-66.

Both teams had their fright moments in the respective second halves. UCLA pulled to within five points of Memphis before the Tigers put them down for good and Kansas was a 28-point lead shrink to just four as the Carolinians took advantage of Jayhawk overconfidence and sloppy play.

In the end, both games were slaughterhouse variety basketball, with the better, stronger, faster, bigger players taking out the unprepared, overmatched teams which could not find answers. It sets up one of the best college basketball finales of recent memory.

Memphis (38-1) -2 vs. Kansas (36-3)

In Memphis, John Calipari has assembled and coached a team that has consistently outplayed every comer and overcome every obstacle to achieve an NCAA first: 38 wins in a season. But for a 2-point loss to Tennessee, this team would be 39-0. They'll have their chance to win a first-ever title for Memphis on Monday night.

Kansas is obviously the more storied program. College hoops starts and ends in Jayhawk territory. Kansas, however, has only two national championships to show for its efforts, in 1952 and 1988. The current squad has compiled an outstanding 36-3 record and looks poised to hang a third championship banner from the rafters of Allen Fieldhouse.

In examining the two teams, both appear capable of winning, but despite being 2-point underdogs, Kansas looks like the more formidable foe because of four key factors: speed, defense, bench strength and post play.

The Jayhawks actually outran North Carolina in Saturday's semi-final, no easy task there, and are the 12th-highest scoring team in the country, at 80.7 points per game. You don't have to go far down the list to find Memphis however, at #14, with 80.2 points per outing. The Jayhawks have a better defensive presence, with active hands looking for steals constantly. The Kansas players can finish as well, though Memphis also has great finishers on the break.

In team rebounding, Memphis gets a slight edge, at 40.8, to the Jayhawks' 38.7 per game. Kansas leads in assists, 18.1 (3rd in the nation) to 16.0 for Memphis.

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Kansas has two weapons on their bench which may prove to be telling in this final game matchup. Guard Sherron Collins and forward Cole Aldrich both made key contributions in Kansas' win over the Tar Heels. Collins scored 11 points on 4-of-7 shooting, while Aldrich - a freshman and former McDonald's All American - was sensational with 7 rebounds (4 offensive) and 8 points in 17 minutes.

While the high scorers for each team - Kansas' Brandon Rush and Memphis' Chris Douglas-Roberts - will likely neutralize each other, it will be a matchup worth watching. But inside, monstrous Joey Dorsey will have his hands full dealing with the likes of Darrell Arthur, Darrell Jackson, Aldrich and Sasha Kaun. They're all big, strong and active. Expect Kansas to dominate the lane and the boards.

A couple of caveats: Davidson, which Kansas ousted to reach the Final Four, played all but one of the four finalists this season tough, losing close games to North Carolina and UCLA during the season. The one team that did not have Davidson on their schedule was Memphis, and it could have meaning one way or another. Also, when comparing stats, it should be noted that Kansas played in the rough and tumble Big 12, while Memphis dominated the relatively weak Conference-USA.

With advantages in speed, scoring, bench strength and defense, coach Bill Self should elevate himself to the elite ranks of college coaching. In five years as Kansas head coach he's proven himself a master game-planner and courtside coach.

Prediction: Kansas 82 Memphis 74

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