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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, November 24, 2023, 9:20 am ET Fill in the blank: The US government is run by _______.
A. morons This is not a test. There are no wrong answers. When congress passed the American Rescue Plan passed in March, 2021, it included a provision that anybody who received more than $600 through payment platforms like Venmo, Stripe, PayPal, and others (it's an evolving list) during the course of a tax year, would receive a 1099-k form and be liable for reporting and paying income tax on that amount. The new requirement was slated to go into effect with the 2022 tax year. It didn't. The IRS declared that they were delaying the requirement until 2023.
Well, it's 2023, and, never opposed to letting people flay about in the wind, the IRS, on Tuesday, said they were delaying the requirement again, for another year. So, now that there's only a little more than a month left in the year, all you gig workers, fivrrs, etsy creators, Uber drivers, dog walker, house sitters, tik-tockers, and most of generations X, Y, and Z can rest easy. Unless you made more than $20,000, you won't get a 1099-K, and you can Of course, the IRS didn't miss the opportunity to muck up the waters. They announced that in 2024, the reporting threshold will be increased from the *never-instituted* $600 level, to $5,000. Worry not, that will change, next November, probably. The problem here, as the warden said to Paul Newman in the classic filn, "Cool Hand Luke", what we have here is a failure to communicate. Did anybody in the congress or the White House bother to consult with the IRS before passing this mess? No, certainly not. The proof is in the slushy pudding they've coked up. The US government, for roughly the last (20, 40, 100, 200 or more - take your pick) years, has been about as useful as teets on a bull, a pay toilet in the incontinence ward, or a three-dollar bill. This latest mea culpa by the IRS proves the point. Members of congress, all those effete, insensitive senators and representatives should publicly apologize to all of America, turn out the lights in the Capitol building and leave. And never come back. They've gone past uselessness. They're now - and have been for some time - THE PROBLEM. Approaching the opening bell, gold and silver are ripping higher, with gold on the COMEX running hot at $2,022.10. Silver is closing in on $24.50. Stock futures are mixed, crude is down. Today is a half-session, so get your orders in early.
At the Close, Wednesday, November 22, 2023:
Wednesday, November 22, 2023, 8:20 am ET Tuesday's session was up and down, but mostly down, with bulls getting a bit weary chasing high-flying stocks. The S&P closed to the downside for only the third time in the last 17 sessions. During that period, starting with October 27, the S&P has added 420 points, or roughly 10 percent, an extraordinary return in less than a month. Those who decry market timing haven't enjoyed the unrivaled pleasure of massive short-term gains and likely never will. Tech darling chip-maker, Nvidia (NVDA), released its report for the third quarter after Tuesday's closing bell, smashing estimates by wide margins. Closing at a record high on Monday (504.09), holders of the stock were just a little shy going into earnings, knocking the price back to 499.44 on Tuesday's close. The company, like most of its peers, especially in retail, issued a bit of a clunker when it came to forecasting, citing expected loss of business in China, primarily. That put a little touch of alarm into the post-market party, sending shares down four percent before rebounding back. On Wednesday morning, the stock has returned to positive territory, up about a half percent. Late Tuesday, the oil market was the recipient a reality check via new data showing U.S. crude stocks rose by nearly 9.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 17, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. WTI crude had rallied to as high as $78 a barrel on Monday, but began giving some of those gains back Tuesday. As traders await the determination of OPEC+ ministers from their meeting this Sunday, crude is falling Wednesday morning in a big way, down $2.20 to $75.57, even as rumors swirl about deeper production cuts from the cartel. At issue is demand, which will see a bump over the next few days as Americans take to the highways over the four-day Thanksgiving weekend. Travelers will be treated to the lowest gasoline prices since 2020, More than 65,000 gas stations nationwide are below the $3.00 mark, with 13 states averaging below $3.00 per gallon, according to gasbuddy.com, which has the national average at $3.25. With the last full session before the holiday (Friday is a half day, closing at 1:00 pm ET.) directly ahead, stock futures are solidly higher. Asia was mixed overnight, as is Europe at midday. Gold, after rising close to $2030 on the COMEX, backed off late Tuesday, but made up some ground Wednesday morning, currently at $2023, with silver also elevated, trading around $24.25 per ounce. Trading is likely to be muted, with many desks unoccupied already, some traders having made their escape to holiday revelry early. Things should slow down considerably after 1:00 pm ET.
At the Close, Tuesday, November 21, 2023:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023, 9:20 am ET
"Nice crypto exchange ya got there. Be a shame if anything happened to it." Back in the "good old days," (1980s, 1960s, 1920s... take your pick) the government used to try to protect citizens and businesses from criminals and protection rackets. These days, it's hard to discern the difference between the good guys and bad guys, mostly because the government is bankrupt and runs its own version of a protection racket. For those unfamiliar with the term, a protection racket is an operation that demands regular payments from "clients" to keep their business interests from falling into disrepair. That's a nice way of saying, "give us money every week and your store won't burn down." It was a practice widely employed by various organized crime mobs back in those good old days when success was measured by how many fingers, thumbs and kneecaps were unbroken. Take the case of crypto exchange Binance, for instance. Reuters, a trusted news source, cites a Bloomberg story (another trusted news source) claiming the Department of Justice is seeking $4 billion from the firm to settle a long-standing investigation. Binance Holdings, a company that was initially formed in China but now operates out of the Cayman Islands since China banned ICOs in 2017, has had regulatory problems seemingly from day one. That shouldn't come as a surprise, considering that Binance deals in currencies that might compete with the likes of the Chinese yuan, US dollar, or the EU's euro. Government's don't generally take kindly to people or companies that undermine their currency monopolies. Right or wrong, Binance is under the gun. This latest bit of insight by Bloomberg into a prospective deal between Binance and the Justice Department may even include prison time the company's CEO, Changpeng Zhao, often referred to by his nickname, "CZ." It's hard to imagine CZ surrendering himself to any authority, especially since he walks free somewhere in the world, having rebuffed allegations and skirted regulations from at least nine different governments, from Japan to Germany to Thailand and beyond. While the US government surely possesses the tools and know-how to bring Binance under its regulatory thumb, it hasn't, likely because there's so much institutional money tied up in it. The US Justice Department might want to crack down hard on cryptocurrencies in general and Binance in particular, but it wouldn't want to break anybody's finders, step on any other toes, or squeeze the cajones of their friends in the world of high finance. It's a bit of a mess, but, the government needs the money, and, being the biggest and baddest government in the world means the US will probably get first dibs on whatever they can get Binance to fork over. This is the kind of thing that happens when governments are as corrupt as the people they're investigating. The probe into Binance has been ongoing since 2018. In five years time, surely there's been some progress, or at least some payoffs, kickbacks, protection money paid. The US government is broke. They need the money. Will they take bitcoin or ether? The DOJ, FBI, IRS and God knows what other agencies will divvy up whatever they can squeeze out of CZ and Binance. After all, it's easier - and more cost-effective - than chasing down a potential 30 million tax cheats. That's the number of new 1099-K forms - in addition to the roughly 14 million regularly issued - the IRS plans to see go out for the 2023 tax year. This is the result of the policy to reduce the gross sales threshold from $20,000 to just $600 that was included in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. The rule was initially supposed to come into effect during tax year 2022, but, the IRS postponed it to the 2023 tax year, citing its burden to the agency and inability to process so much information. For the sake of argument, let's say, hypothetically, of course, that all these new 1099-K recipients simply threw the forms away when they received them and didn't bother to report the income on their tax forms. 345 weeks (about 6 1/2 years) is how long it would take a hypothetical 87,000 IRS agents to investigate the 30 million new 1099s that "should" go out to gig workers, baby-sitters, part-timers, retirees, dog-walkers, Uber drivers and anybody who received more than $600 through PayPal, Venmo, eBay, or any of the popular payment processors, if each agent spent a week investigating each "offense." Shouldn't the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 actually be called the American Screw You Plan Act of 2021. The government wants its fingers, hands, and other appendages as deep into the citizenry as possible. This 1099-K provision could be rebellion-level stuff, but, as long as there's a football game being aired somewhere, anywhere, Americans aren't likely to get very huffy about it. It's easier to just ignore the government at this point. Maybe, if we're lucky, they'll just go away pr collapse under the weight of their own collective stupidity. Then again... "Mommy, why is Grandma going to prison?" "Well, dear, turn's out, Grandma's a criminal. She sold some of her jewelry last year on eBay so she could afford to feed her cat, but she didn't report it to the IRS." Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index closed up on Monday, for the 14th time in the last 16 sessions. Maybe the DOJ should be looking into the people running that racket. Tuesday will be the second of just three full trading days this week. Stock exchanges will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and operate a half session on Friday, with a 1:00 pm ET close. With markets opening shortly, Dow futures are down 80 points, S&P futures down 13.50, NASDAQ futures down 79. Stocks were mixed overnight in Asia. European indices are flat to lower. Gold and silver are soaring, with gold testing all-time highs, hitting $2021 on the COMEX continuous contract, and silver over $24 per ounce. Bitcoin is plunging. WTI crude is down slightly, around $77.00. The dollar is getting whacked, as it has been the past few days. Only 34 days 'til Christmas!
At the Close, Monday, November 20, 2023:
Sunday, November 19, 2023, 8:48 am ET It shouldn't have to be stated, but, from the American soldiers holding Chinese flags on the streets of San Francisco to the incoherent drooling of Joe Biden calling Xi Jinping a "dictator", the US-China summit in advance of the APAC meeting was an unmitigated disaster for the United States government. From all indications, the US federal representatives, including the puppet non-president Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, were all too willing to cede the role of world superpower and thus, hand world leadership over to China. Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mersouris of the Duran examine the implications in the video at the conclusion of this post. Americans need to adjust their perceptions to the reality that the USA is no longer #1. China is #1. The dysfunctional USA is somewhere further down the list... and falling. Wherever US representatives travel and with whomever foreign leaders they communicate, American influence is diminished. From Russia to the Middle East to China and beyond, US officials are ridiculed, shunned, and eventually ignored. It would be far better for the citizens of the United States should these amateur diplomats confine themselves to their office chairs, preferably in chains. Aside from the political meanderings of the executive branch, congress managed to avoid a government shutdown, passing a stop-gap measure forwarded by the newly-minted Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, that ensures the government will continue, at least until January, 2024, throwing tax and borrowed dollars into the firepit of debt, which, as of this writing is over $33.7 trillion and growing. Stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and just about everything except oil were well bid this week after October CPI came in flat on a monthly basis and the all items index increased 3.2 percent year over year. STOCKS Apparently reading from the same playbook, executives from Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) and BJ's Discount (BJ) issued guidance warnings upon release of their third quarter earnings reports, alteratingly stressing geopolitics and macroeconomic factors, with Walmart's CEO going so far as to suggest that the near term might show signs of deflation. After nearly two years of the Fed fighting inflation and watching goods and services inflation, now Americans will be met with wage and price deflation? James Rickards believes that the Fed may have tightened policy too quickly and too far by raising the target federal funds rate beyond the terminal rate, the rate at which inflation will come down on its own without further rate hikes, the overshoot resulting in a deflationary backlash. Could happen. It's also possible that after a short-term period of disinflation or deflation, inflation could re-ignite, as it did in the late 1970s. Despite the warnings from the retail giants, stocks took their main queue from the seeming lack of inflation over the prior month and took that as a sign the Fed would not only continue to pause rates at the current 5.25-5.50% as the federal funds target, but also begin to lower rates as the economy cools. With a consensus believing a 25 or 50 basis point cut could happen as soon as March of next year, stocks were off to the races, completing a third straight week of gains for the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P, and one of the better overall weeks for stocks this year. November's been vary kind to equity investors. The S&P has been up 13 of the last 15 sessions, following three straight months of declines. With the holidays approaching and World War III on indefinite hold for now, this rally could easily proceed further. It's already closing in on the highs of the year. If that's achieved, the next benchmark would be all-time highs from November 2021 (NASDAQ) and January, 2022 (Dow, S&P). That's if those retailers are wrong about a slow shopping season. For the week, the leaders were tech (NASDAQ, +2.37%), small caps (NYSE Comp., +2.76), and the amazingly volatile Dow Jones Transportation Average (+3.51). Shorts were hauled out and dumped on the trash heap of historic losers once more. Short sellers and put buyers need to learn you should not fight the fed, or momentum, or headline-driven algos. The coming week is data light, with FOMC minutes, durable goods orders, and existing home sales the headliners. Nvidia (NVDA) and Baidu (BDU) both report earnings on Tuesday, November 21st.
Spreads:
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years) Short-term bills continued to hold fairly steady, but 4-month and 6-month bill yields were down five and seven basis points respectively. Notes were bought with vigor. One-year yields fell 14 basis points on the week, with 2-year and 3-year yeilds losing 16 each. Yield on the 10-year (4.44%) was the lowest since September 22nd down a whopping 17 basis points. Spreads worsened (deeper inversion) over the course of the week, with 2s-10s inverting one basis point further. 30-year bond yield dropped 14 bips to 3.59%, also the lowest since 9/22. That sudden downdraft pushed the full spectrum spread across the entire yield curve to -93. Normalization of rates remains a future objective.
WTI crude traded as low as $72.49 on Thursday, then rallied Friday to end the week at $76.08, further down from last Friday's close: $77.35. Just over a month ago, the price was $90.77, so, the drop has been consistent and substantial. The price of crude oil, continues to affect the price of gas at the pump. With Thanksgiving travel already begun, the US national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline dropped again over the course of the week, to $3.30, down from $3.34 last week and $3.40 the week earler, continuing to test the lowest prices of the year, which were in January. Increased awareness of slack demand and oversupply are driving prices lower. According to gasbuddy.com, outside of Florida, which fell 15 cents this week to $3.02, the entire Southeast is now well under $3.00 a gallon, led by Mississippi ($2.76) and Texas ($2.79). Louisiana and Oklahoma check in at $2.80, followed by Georgia (2.82), with Alabama and Arkansas at 2.86. The remaining states of Tennessee and South Carolina are both at 2.92. California dropped another nine cents, to $4.96, dropping it out of the $5 gouge club for the first time since Spring. Prices eased elsewhere in the West, with Washington ($4.41) down another six cents. Nevada fell to $4.28, down 11 cents. Oregon ($4.06) eased 10 cents; Arizona ($3.63) is down 11 cents. The $4.00+ club, continues with just four states. In the Northeast, New York and Pennsylvania are the highest ($3.58) by two cents. The lowest prices in the region are Ohio and Virginia, bothe at $3.08. Illinois ($3.47) remains on top in the Midwest, followed by Indiana ($3.26) and Michigan ($3.25), both down more than a dime. Iowa dropped to $2.98. Wisconsin ($3.02) appears to be the next to cross below $3.00.
This week: $36,480.90 Gambling isn't for everybody.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 83.45; last week: 87.08 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 10/20: $1,993.10
Silver price 10/20: $23.53 Last week was an examination of silver under $22, even below $21, suggesting that the COMEX and LBMA riggers, with deep ties to the US$ hegemony machine under the auspices of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Working Group on Financial Markets, the NY Fed's trading desk and elsewhere, in places hidden from sight, of which normal humans can only imagine in their darkest dreams. This week, silver moved much more rapidly to the upside than gold, up 7.73% to gold's 2.23% gain (according to Google charts). Both caught bids as the US$ was falling, the dollar index dropping from a Monday morning high of 105.93 to end the week at its low point of 103.82. Dow from its highs above 113 (September-October 2022), the dollar has maintained a strong position above 100 since April, 2022, except for a brief foray down to 99-and-change this past July. As long as the Fed keeps the federal funds target rate at or near the current lofty levels, the dollar isn't likely to suffer much, though bond vigilantes, back in force the past two weeks appear to have other ideas. Once the dollar starts to fall, gold and silver should accelerate higher, but that's a story for another day, when the central bank cartel aparatus finally fails. It still seems a long shot and opinions vary widely on the future of precious metals as currency overall. Alasdair Macleod details some fine points about gold appreciation via dollar hegemony and other fiat currencies at Shiffgold.com, noting that gold is six percent lower in US$, but 35% higher in the weakened Japanese yen since August 6, 2020, the last US$ gold peak. Gold priced in US$ will break out to new highs seems to be only a matter of time, a when, not if, situation. Nothing beats hard assets that you hold personally. In case you've already got a nice stash of PMs, other hard assets include vehicles, tools, dry foodstuffs, water, fuel. Don't forget art and collectibles. They may not be in large demand in times of stress, though recent prices at auction beg otherwise. Besides, unless it's nuclear, World War III will be localized, making preparedness more a matter of climate versus conflict. Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping included):
Prices on eBay were up dramatically over the weekend, possibly owing to some early Christmas shopping and surely to the nice gains silver and gold have put on over the past few weeks. The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rocketed higher, to $36.91, a gain of $2.61, from the November 12 price of $34.30 per troy ounce.
A short holiday week approaches, which will shutter the stock exchanges on Thursday and a half-day, closing at 1:00 pm ET, Friday. Bond markets will be closed both Thursday and Friday. Happy Thanksgiving! Spend some of your holiday spare time relaxing with IdleGuy.com, a men's magazine for the 21st century.
At the Close, Friday, November 17, 2023:
For the Week:
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IdleGuy.com April/May 2024, Vol. 1 #4