NFL Divisional Playoff Picks - Late Games
NFL Divisional Weekend Late Games
All times Eastern
Sunday, January 12
3:05 pm Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 51) - Houston was fortunate to get past visiting Buffalo in last week's wild card game, needing two touchdowns, two two-point conversions, and overtime to defeat the Bills in the wild card game, 22-19. Buffalo blew a 16-0, third quarter lead, allowing the Texans to advance.
Being the #2 seed, Kansas City had the week off, and comes into this game well-rested and self-assured. Riding a six-game win streak, the Chiefs may be peaking at the right time, and coach Andy Reid has plenty of playoff experience to lead his young troops.
These two met back in week six, with the Texans taking a 31-24 decision over the Chiefs, in Houston. KC QB Patrick Mahomes was injured in that game, and visibly limping toward the end of it.
Of the four games this weekend, this one holds the best opportunity for a high-scoring affair. Houston's defense has been deficient all season. They ranked 19th in points allowed, giving up a whopping 24.1 per game. Kansas City, which bolstered their defense in the off-season, was #7, giving up only 19.3 on average.
Offensively, the Chiefs were fifth in scoring, averaging 28.2 points per game during the regular season. That compare well to Houston's ranking at #14, scoring 23.6 per contest.
Bottom line, the Chiefs are a better team overall and shouldn't have too hard a time penetrating the Houston defense. The texans will be facing a Kansas City defense that showed it is capable of shutting down an offense. In their last six straight wins no team has scored more than 21 points and three of them were held to under 10 (Oakland, Denver, Chicago). The Chiefs also showed plenty of girt and performed under pressure in their week 14 win at New England, holding off the Patriots late for a 23-16 victory.
Of the four games this weekend, this one has the potential to be lopsided. The Chiefs will move ahead to the conference championship with a relatively easy win.
Coin Flip: Houston
Prediction: Chiefs 38 Texans 17
This time, Seattle will be facing a seasoned quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who is itching to get back to a championship game and possibly the Super Bowl, but needs a top effort to advance. The Packers missed out on the post-season each of the past two years and don't want to be one-and-done against the Seahawks.
That's not going to be easy. Seattle plays everybody tough, but their record proves that they can be beaten by a solid margin if their defense doesn't hold together. Green Bay has an offense that wasn't exactly a world beater, but is very adept at moving the ball consistently and mixing up passing and running to wear down an opponent's defense. The Packers scored an average of 23.5 points per game, but it must be remembered that they played Minnesota and Chicago twice each, and each of them were solid defensively. Seattle's offense was good for 25.3 points per game, not a glaring difference.
The Packers ride a five-game winning streak into this home contest, and they only lost once at Lambeau Field, a 34-27 loss to the Eagles in week four. Also, their defense has solidified. In their final five wins they allowed an average of 14.2 points per game, right there with the leading defenses in the league.
Seattle is vulnerable on defense, ranking 22nd in points allowed, an average of 24.9 per game, while the Packers were #8, allowing just 19.6.
Also important are Seattle's margins in losses. They lost five times in 2019, and not one of them was by fewer than five points. Baltimore and Arizona each topped them by 14, and the Rams hammered them, 28-12, in week 14. If Seattle doesn't get their offense moving early - and they are short in the backfield which only aggravates their condition - Green Bay may be able to establish a lead which their defense can use to advantage.
It's asking quite a bit for the Seahawks to win in Green Bay, considering the Packers' desire and a short list of running backs for Seattle.
Coin Flip: Seattle
Prediction: Packers 27 Seahawks 17
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Divisional Weekend Early Games
6:40 pm Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4, 47) - Against the Eagles last week in the wild card game, Seattle's defense came up big, for a 17-9 win in Philly, the same score that the Seahawks put on the Eagles back in week 12, also in Philadelphia.
