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Weekly Survey of Gold and Silver Prices
Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark
Money Daily has been providing business and financial market news, views, and coverage on a nearly continuous basis since 2006. Complete archives are available at moneydaily.blogspot.com.
PRIOR COVERAGE:
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Friday, October 6, 2023, 8:53 am ET If you live in the United States or Europe, here's something the mainstream media either glossed over or completely ignored as part of their obligation to report "truthfully." Global manufacturing, since the post-pandemic "recovery" has been gradually declining, and, in the West, especially in Europe, it is now absolutely cratering. J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI [PDF] report, released Monday, October 2, opens with the following headline: Global manufacturing output contracts as demand weakens in September And, it gets worse from there. Reading through the three-page release is likely not an easy task for those paragons of virtue and industry in Germany, which has fallen to the bottom of the heap, with its PMI hovering around 40. For reference, the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) used 50 as a baseline. Any number above 50 relates to manufacturing growth; below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. The cumulative number for the past 13 months has been under 50. September registered as 49.1. The best-performing economies (the only ones above 50) are Greece, China, Philippines, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, and there, at the top of the heap stands Russia. Ta-da! All those sanctions and bombings and killing at their border in Ukraine really put the kibosh on Putin and his folks, didn't it? At the bottom are the UK, France, Poland, Netherlands, Eurozone, Czech Republic, Austria, and bottoming out after colluding with the United States to blow up the Nordstream pipelines which delivered all of that inexpensive Russian natural gas, GERMANY. Nice going, neocons! Just in case the "leaders" of Western nations in the US, UK, and EU haven't noticed, all the worst contraction is taking place in your countries, while, with the exception of Greece, all the countries prospering with growth in their manufacturing sectors are not part of NATO. Putting it in terms which everybody can understand, the architects of the conflict in Ukraine and the complementary destruction of their economies, should be removed from office as quickly as possible. The damage they have done, the lives wasted, the money spent on munitions, graft, and corruption are an abomination. It should be noted that the United States shows only a very minor contraction, a testament to the ability of US economists to twist, mangle, massage, and strangle the truth until it bears the image the manipulators seek. US manufacturing is a shadow of what it was 20 and 30 years ago. In the main, the US exports lies and omissions. Now, onto the next fantasy, that is the September Non-farm Payroll Report from the infamous Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLs), which has subsequently revised every monthly report lower for the past year, to the point that US employment figures are at best a bad joke.
Estimates for September were for the creation of 170,000 net new jobs. What the BLS announced on the household survey was an astonishing 330,000 nw jobs. Not only that, but the number monkeys managed to revise July up by 79,000, from Simply not believable. Like their counterparts who produce the private payroll ADP report, the BLS isn't counting the actors and actresses, UAW workers and health care providers on strike across the country. Striking workers are counted as "employed." Ignorance is strength (h/t, George Orwell). Bear in mind that Wall Street was looking for the worst possible outcome, as a poorly-performing economy, replete with job losses, slack demand, tapped-out consumers, and mountains of federal debt will prompt the Federal Reserve to cease its rate-hiking regime and pivot back to lower rates and easy money. Wait a minute. Isn't all that bad stuff already happening? What are Jerome Powell and his pals at the Fed thinking? Through Thursday's close, here's where the major indices stand for the week:
Dow Industrials: -387.93 Futures absolutely cratered on the BLS phony data dump. Fasten your seatbelts.
At the Close, Thursday, October 5, 2023:
Thursday, October 5, 2023, 9:11 am ET As the day dawns over the eastern shores of North America, oil prices continue to trend lower. Following a day which saw Brent crude oil futures settle down $5.11, or 5.6%, to $85.81 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fall $5.01, or 5.6%, to $84.22, early Thursday morning trading continues to the downside. WTI crude is off another $1.25, at $82.97 a barrel with Brent also lower, at 84.69 (-1.12, -1.31%). Declining oil prices translate into lower prices for gasoline and other distillates, or, in this case, slack demand for gas at the pump, especially in the US, is causing oil speculators to rethink their positions. Even with the Saudis and Russia reaffirming their production cuts, at the very least, through the end of 2023, there simply isn't a rush to fill up the tanks and go for a ride. Now that the summer driving season has passed and chillier air becomes more prevalent, US drivers are sending up an alarm about the general economy that should not be taken lightly.
US drivers are using less fuel for a variety of reasons. A brief list would include: After reaching nose-bleed levels in August and September, the national average rising to $3.85, prices have begun to decline, this morning quoted at $3.74 at gasbuddy.com. While oil supply remains static amid sanctions against Russia and Iran, the supply of gas being processed is on the rise at a time in which there simply isn't much driving and traveling. An burgeoning supply glut of automotive fuel may cause oil prices to decline even further, as sub-$80 WTI crude comes back into focus. The rapid price rise of oil from July through September, which drove the price of WTI from $68 to above $93 per barrel, may have been overdone and out of sync with emerging global economic conditions. As mentioned in Wednesday's Money Daily, lower oil prices often signal eroding financial conditions, and, given recent weakness in equities and rising bond yields, it would come as no surprise to see not only lower prices for oil and gas, but dropping stock prices as the fourth quarter progresses. There are excesses galore in the global economy, many of which are beginning to contract. Due to the situation in Ukraine, Europe's economies are in freefall, the US has its own problems with corruption, a leadership void, and wildly aberrant financial data, while China desperately tries to fend off a rather obvious real estate bust. The leaders of the global economic front are facing severe headwinds to growth. They would be lucky to only fall into a recession in coming months. Wednesday's ADP's National Employment Report for September showed job gains of only 89,000, roughly half of what was expected, with the bulk of job losses (83,000) occurring at employers with over 500 employees. Job losses at corporate giants were offset by gains in small and mid-sized firms. The data suggests that employment may be on the wane, another economic point that seems obvious. The BLS has been revising monthly data lower for more than a year and anecdotal experience leads many to believe that strong US employment is a fallacy. Currently, estimates for September Non-farm Payrolls are for job gains of 170,000. The report is set for release Friday at 8:30 am ET.
At the Close, Wednesday, October 4, 2023:
Wednesday, October 4, 2023, 9:19 am ET Just two days into fourth quarter active trading, stocks have taken some serious blows. Monday's superficial losses were overshadowed by deep gashes to the major indices on Tuesday. Growing unrest, political turmoil, and deteriorating sentiment concerning the overall health of the US - and, more broadly, global - economy have intertwined into a tangled web of confusion. For deep state, war-mongering, open border loyalists, the ouster of closet Democrat Kevin McCarthy from his role as Speaker of the House has sent a clear message that their policies are being challenged right in their own back yard. McCarthy's devious plan to fund the government for 45 days via a secret agreement to fund Ukraine in separate legislation completely backfired and now there is chaos. Business can continue in the House of Representatives without a Speaker, but passing any kind of legislation will be a monumental challenge. The odds of a government shutdown by mid-November have shot up to what professional gamblers call "prohibitive" levels, making that outcome a near-certainty. The House won't begin the formal process of choosing a new Speaker until next Wednesday, October 11, which seems like eons. Behind the scenes, strategy meetings and conversations over who might be the next Speaker are taking place. Names like Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, even former president, Donald Trump have been bandied about, but nobody really knows what lay ahead on the uneven road to leadership for a job nobody seems eager to assume. It certainly won't be McCarthy. It could conceivably end up being the firebrand, Matt Gaetz, himself. Wall Street certainly cannot be enjoying this. While the investment community is usually content with partisanship insofar as the politicians being unable to pass bills to muck up the system, this is an animal of a different color. A zebra with spots. A leopard with stripes. From just about any perspective, it looks like the government is falling apart. To what extent Washington's wrangling affected trading on Tuesday is unmeasurable. There were other issues, but, the ungodly mess was forming in the background, another headache piled atop a growing list of concerns. Interest rates are through the roof. The Southern border is wide open to illegal aliens. Inflation. Recession. It's enough to make one want to sell. And that's what they did. Tuesday's selling was relentless. From the opening bell to the final ding at closing time, anything not bolted down was up for bid. While the degree and depth of the rout were more pronounced than usual, the plunge was a further extension of the bearish tomes overhanging Wall Street since the end of July. As of Tuesday's close, the Dow Industrials have given back all of the 2023 gains and has re-entered correction territory, down more than 10% from the January, 2022 highs. Ditto the S&P, NYSE Composite, and, as far as the NASDAQ is concerned, let's call a spade a spade, it has fallen back so close to a technical bear market (-20%), that it might as well be in one because there's nothing to stop it from going there other than blind commitment from hard core tech acolytes who will buy dips and protect their investment until the last dying bull. In the end, it's all a chimera, a game of chicken, a search for a greater fool to take your stock at a price higher than what you paid. There's plenty of profit to be taken from the run-up from late December when the index hovered just above 10,000, and take it they will, probably sooner than later. As the opening bell approaches this Wednesday morning, the sky is brightening, futures are levitating, but oil is down and that's never a good sign. Heck, if the stuff that literally and figuratively greases the wheels of industry is losing value, all bets are off. Gold and silver are rebounding quietly from weeks of selling pressure. The voices calling for a "soft landing" have been silenced. Now they whisper "recession" in dark places. Political turmoil, higher inflation, higher interest rates are all pointing in the same direction. Perhaps the only bright spot in the situation spawned by Matt Gaetz and fellow hard-line conservatives is that funding for the war effort in Ukraine will end, which will stop the slaughter. The killing fields will turn hushed. Look out below.
At the Close, Tuesday, October 3, 2023:
Tuesday, October 3, 2023, 9:19 am ET The first trading day of October and the fourth quarter was quite a bit uglier than might be ascertained with just a passing glance at closing figures. A deeper dig into the data reveals more technical damage done to the major indices and a what appears to be the beginning of a collapse in the prices of certain commodities. Being mindful of the recent rise in oil prices amid various warnings, including one from Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General of OPEC+ oil producers, who believes demand will rise by "about 2.4 million barrels a day," signs of the opposite - demand destruction - are rising. Furthermore, Mr. Ghais is concerned that not enough capital is being deployed in energy infrastructure, exploration, and development, citing the risky, misinformed push toward strictly renewables in deference to reliable fossil fuels. Naturally, Mr. Ghais is "talking his book" so to speak, being an integral functionary of the oil cartel. However, he's at least partially right. If the world was ever coordinated around shared goals such as energy sufficiency, there might not be such an urgent rush into wind, solar, and other less-reliable energy systems. There's more than enough oil not yet tapped, much less discovered, to supply the planet with relatively cheap supplies. The United States is a major culprit behind any oil shortfalls that produce higher prices. Besides sanctions on Russia and Iran limiting the flow of crude, the Brandon administration has been busily cancelling oil leases and limiting oil companies' ability to invest in new drilling, all based on the cockeyed notion of climate change threatening the entire planet. Getting rid of government propaganda disinformation and a return to common sense would go a long way toward solving most of the problems on planet Earth, but that doesn't appear to be part of the plan of the globalists who want people to "own nothing and be happy." But, that's a digression. What's actually happening is that oligopolies in large swaths of human endeavor are using government to bludgeon competition, which harms consumers at the fringes of the world economy. Manufactured shortages of food, fuel, and information cause maladies such as inflation, supply chain breakdowns, poverty, malnourishment, and starvation. It's only by interference that globalists retain their power, though recent actions by BRICS members and aligned countries are changing that calculation by divorcing themselves from Western hegemony. Though the process is slow and progress somewhat incremental, food and energy shortages will become a feature of Western nations. BRICS and their allies will experience prosperity and abundance through shared goals and cooperation, as opposed to the Western style of sanctions and economic punishment. While the West continues to insist on carrying a whip and bullhorn, the East, or "Global South" is more reliant on a shepherd's staff and mason's trowel to build a new future. What happened Monday in stocks and continues to occur on a fairly regular schedule, is further breakdown, a condition that appears to be breaking out in other sectors, especially commodities. Along with gold and silver being mashed, WTI crude oil was ripped lower on Monday, from around $91.50 a barrel to under $88 by close to midnight, a continuation of the trend that began last Thursday when oil topped out near $95. There's a subtle realization that oil cannot sustain currently-high prices because the major consumer in the West, the United States, is beginning to contract after nearly two years of rising inflation that has strained consumers to the point of desperation. Desperate people don't drive as much, and they are more circumspect about spending overall. The looming recession will keep a lid on oil prices, not the other way around, as with oil price hikes causing economic pain. Lower demand will promote lower prices. It's just basic economics. The continuum of price declines on the main indices doesn't seem to have found a bottom or a tradable "buy the dip" level. Intraday, Dow Industrials slumped to the worst levels since early June, along with NASDAQ and the S&P 500. There's no joking about direction. The Dow has closed in negative territory nine of the past 12 sessions. The NASDAQ, thanks to hedge funds who love to dabble and rumble about in tech stocks, was down recently four of five sessions before turning in gains the past four. S&P stocks have lost ground in six of the last 10 sessions. Stocks began turning lower the first day of August and there's been relatively few pauses to the declines. With US markets set to open in half an hour, futures are once again headed lower as the distribution phase begins to turn into more of a bear market rout. Monday's start to the fourth quarter wasn't very positive. If anything, outside of the few remaining tech loyalists, investors are running scared. There's been too much froth for far too long for the charade of a growing economy to persist. If you want a glimpse of the real problem, it's clueless people like Yahoo's Rick Newman, who think funding Ukraine is "money well spent."
At the Close, Monday, October 2, 2023:
Sunday, October 1, 2023, 11:15 am ET Passing a 45-day continuing resolution (CR) just hours before midnight Saturday, the US congress narrowly avoided a partial shutdown of the federal government. Though the theatrics have grown tiresome, it's probably for the best, as it holds back the eventuality of congress actually shutting down large swaths of itself on a more permanent basis. When food stamps and Social Security checks either become near worthless (hyper-inflation) or the government can't borrow enough to fund them (currency collapse), the grifters who hide behind the pretense of "leadership" will be exposed as the worthless parasites they are. The United States - indeed, most countries - would do better without the constraints of government, or, at least large functions of it. In the US, UK, and EU, taxes, fes, regulations, and restrictions have taken such large bites out of the respective economies, there's little left for the monsters on which to chew. For now, though, HUZZAH!
The week was mostly up-and-down for stocks, with the NASDAQ finishing with a tiny gain of 7.52 points, but the other majors down, led by the Dow with a loss of 1.34%. All of the major indices suffered losses over the month of September, with the NASDAQ the leader, down nearly six percent. Percentage losses over the third quarter (July, August, September) were smaller than the one-month declines because stocks were aggressively bought in July and the most severe downturns began on August 1st. Notably, the NASDAQ has remained in a deep correction off its November, 2021 high (16,057.44), down some 17.67%, very close to a technical bear market. The S&P 500 is down 10.60% (correction) from January 3, 2022 ATH, and the Dow is down 8.95% from the same date. The Dow and NYSE Composite finished the week, month, and quarter below their respective 200-day moving averages. NASDAQ and S&P indices finished between their 50- and 200-day moving averages. At the very least, October and the entire fourth quarter appears challenging as stocks have eroded rather quickly the past two months. They may be due for a bounce, but almost every indicator is pointing towards recession or worse.
For the Week:
For the Month:
For the Quarter:
Once more, long-dated maturities stole the show in the treasury market, with the 30-year bond yield rising a whopping 20 basis points in just one week. The 10-year note added 15 basis points, while the 2-year was up just seven. Bills (30-days out to six months) barely budged for a fifth straight week. Notably, spreads have come much closer to dis-inversion. 2s-10s closed out the week at -44, while full spectrum (30-days out to 30-years) rose to -82. For reference, full spectrum was -99 basis points last Friday, from -109 two weeks back, and -119 three weeks ago. 2s-10s were -66 last week, -69 the week before, and -72 three weeks ago. 5s-10s and 7s-10s are close to normalizing. From all appearances, the yield curve won't normalize until short term rates settle in around 5.65-6.00%, which would imply the 10 year above that level and the 30-year completely abandoned, pushing yields close to seven percent. Tight conditions like that would push the recession button pretty hard. Either that, or the Fed unwinds quickly and gets short-term bills down to four percent, though that seems unlikely through most of next year. Odds are good, however, that the inverted curve will normalize before the November, 2024 elections, even though the Fed maintains that they are apolitical.
WTI crude oil closed out the week's trading in New York Friday at $90.77, slightly higher than last Friday's closing price of $90.33, but there was quite a rash of volatility through the week, with price nearly up to $95/barrel. Experts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere are calling for $150 oil in the near to medium term. Predictions like these have not materialized in the past, or, even if they did, prices soon dropped. The bottom line is more pain at the pump for drivers in the US and Europe, which will be affected the most. The US national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline fell by just a penny the past week, to $3.80. According to gasbuddy.com, Mississippi maintained the lowest price for fuel at the pump, $3.20, down four cents from last week. Georgia dropped a nickel to tie for the cheapest gas in America, also at $3.20. South Carolina ($3.26), Louisiana ($3.29), Alabama ($3.29), and Tennessee ($3.29) all were lower. Texas was at $3.33. Florida dropped 11 cents, to $3.45. Prices have soared in California, up to $6.07, from $5.79 a gallon last week. Elsewhere, prices eased in with Washington ($5.12) and Nevada ($5.10, up 6 cents) are far from California prices, but also the only others above $5.00. Oregon ($4.72) and Arizona ($4.68) were higher over the week, with Utah and Idaho both at $4.12. Prices continue high in Montana, though down seven cents, to $4.09 this week. Those eight Western states comprise the $4.00+ club. In the Northeast the highest gas prices remain in Pennsylvania ($3.87) and New York ($3.86). The lowest prices in the region are to be found in Kentucky and Ohio ($3.40). North Dakota ($3.80) leads in the Midwest, with Illinois a close second ($3.78) and Minnesota at $3.75, followed by Michigan ($3.73) and South Dakota ($3.72).
This week: $27,157.40 Stuck in a range between $25,000 and $31,000 for the past 6 1/2 months, Bitcoin is actually one of the top performing assets of the year, up 63% through nine months.
Gold:Silver Ratio: 83.28; last week: 81.65 Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 09/01: $1,966.20
Silver price 09/01: $24.55 Precious metals were absolutely mashed this week, with gold down more than four percent and silver sliding by nearly six. Over the course of the month, gold lost five percent (-$102) and silver almost nine (-$2.16). Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping included):
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell sharply this week, down $2.06, to $35.68, from the September 24 price of $37.74 per troy ounce.
Now that congress has assured that government will continue to ravage the populace for another 45 days, there's a good chance for a bounce in stocks and some pullback in bond yields. Congress will surely do another song and dance in late October or early November, coinciding with the October 31 - November 1 FOMC meeting. The deal struck late night Saturday excluded $6 billion in funds for Ukraine, a good sign, though there's rumor that Speaker Kevin McCarthy made a deal with Democrats to introduce a spending bill for the war hawks within a short time. It sets up what could possibly be a serious debate on the House floor over the entire Ukraine fiasco. Recent indications are that Americans and quite a few members of congress itself have grown weary of the pointless morass and continued Russia-baiting. Might there be a few adults in the room capable of putting that situation to rest? Joe Brandon's impeachment inquiry is likely to reach new levels of absurdity, revealing more of the traitorous leanings of the resident-in-chief. Above all, the coming months will be more about election politics than anything else. Democrats don't want to lose their grip on power and the mostly RINO Republicans in the Senate would surely like to continue on as "principled opposition," AKA, the snorter wing of the congressional uniparty. At the base of all the arguments, it's Trump and his acolytes, plus 200 million or more angry Americans against progressive policies and leadership failure. Politically and socially, things are certainly heating up while the economy appears headed for ruin. Peace in Ukraine and the ouster of Biden might change the direction of everything, but that's not something anybody can or should count on happening.
At the Close, Friday, September 29, 2023:
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IdleGuy.com April/May 2024, Vol. 1 #4