2021 NCAA Week 4 Picks

3:30 pm Colorado State at #5 Iowa (-23, 44 1/2) - The Rams opened their 2021 season with a 42-23 loss to San Deigo State, and followed with a 24-21 defeat at the hands of Vanderbilt. Their third outing produced a 22-6 win over a Toledo team that came close to upend Notre Dame, so they look like an improving bunch. They will need all the confidence they can get from that win as they are big underdogs in their second straight road contest.

Iowa has been just plain lights out in building a 3-0 record, with wins over Indiana (34-6), Iowa State (27-17). and an easy, 30-7, romp over Kent State last week. The Hawkeyes seek to control the clock with a steady ground game and elected short passes. Colorado State may be able to stop them on occasion, but not on every possession. Meanwhile, when the Rams have the ball, the Hawkeyes will be playing downhill.

Coin Flip: Iowa

Prediction: Hawkeyes 38 Rams 10

3:30 pm #7 Texas A&M (-5 1/2, 48) at #16 Arkansas - The Aggies are 3-0 despite losing their #1 QB, Haynes King, early in their gutsy, 10-7, win at Colorado. Zach Calzada was inserted and led a sputtering offense to a late score and the win. Last week, Calzada played the entire game in to 34-0 rout of New Mexico and he'll start again this week in a key SEC match-up. The A&M defense is ferocious. They kept the team in the Colorado game and have allowed only 17 points this season, though the competition has been less than top-notch.

Arkansas is also off to a 3-0 start, but they are much more offensive-minded, having scored 38, 40, and 45 points in their victories, one of which was over Texas, in a 40-21 beat down. There are plenty of people high on A&M this season, and their defense may prove to be one of the best in the country, but they'll need to survive a tough schedule, starting with this road test. The Razorbacks have enough offense weapons to outscore the lesser-experienced Aggies and prevail at home.

Coin Flip: Texas A&M

Prediction: Razorbacks 24 Aggies 20

3:30 pm #9 Clemson (-10, 47) at NC State - Clemson hasn't looked very "Clemson-esque" of late, probably due to mass graduations over the past two seasons from championship-caliber teams. Many of the current roster had to sit or saw limited action in prior years and may not be exactly what Tigers' fans are expecting, which is another national championship.

The Tigers lost their opener to Georgia, 10-3, and last week's conference win over Georgia Tech, 14-8, was not inspiring. The Tiger defense appears well-equipped, but the offense lacks big play ability.

NC State is also 2-1, the loss at Mississippi State, 24-10, but that's not a knock on this squad as the Bulldogs are sound defensively. The two wins were blowouts - 45-0 over South Florida, and last week's 45-7 rip of Furman. The Wolfpack have been on the edge of greatness for a while. Last season they went 8-4 and had a good group return from that season. The short line tells the story for this game. Expect a real battle and maybe a big upset.

Coin Flip: NC State

Prediction: Wolfpack 26 Tigers 17

3:30 pm #14 Iowa State (-7, 47 1/2) at Baylor - Iowa State ran into a defensive buzzsaw two weeks back against Iowa in a 27-17 loss, but took out their frustrations adequately on UNLV with a 48-3 mashing last Saturday. This is a talented squad led by QB Brock Purdy and elusive running back Breece Hall. The defense is known to have good instincts and is capable of limiting their opponents to under par performances.

The Cyclones may be running into a different kind of buzzsaw at Baylor. The Bears are fourth nationally in yards per game (561.0) and fifth in points scored, at 46.7 per game. Baylor should be able to score repeatedly on the Cyclones and the final score could be well over the posted O/U. This being a conference game, the intensity should be high on both sides.

Coin Flip: Iowa State

Prediction: Bears 37 Cyclones 34

6:00 pm UCLA (-5 1/2, 58 1/2) at Stanford - The Bruins may not feel too let down following their upset, 40-37, loss to Fresno State last week and savor more the memory of their 38-27 win over LSU. After all, LSU is a highly regarded SEC team, and Fresno's Jake Haener is the leading passer in the country.

These two last met in the 2020 season finale, with Stanford prevailing, 48-47, in double overtime. The Cardinal fell to Kansas State in their season starter, 24-7, but bounced back with convincing wins over USC (42-28) and Vanderbilt (41-23).

By all appearances, this is a pretty even match, give Stanford the nod at home if they can contain dual threat Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Coin Flip: UCLA

Prediction: Cardinal 42 Bruins 38

7:00 pm Tennessee at #11 Florida (-20, 63) - The Vols are in a rebuilding mode, but they have two capable QBs in Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton, a transferee from Michigan. Tennessee's only loss was a 41-34 defeat to Pitt. Milton was injured in that game, but Hooker played well in the losing effort. They defeated Bowling Green, 38-6, and last week routed Tennessee Tech, 56-0.

Florida is coming off a tough, 31-29, loss to Alabama in the Swamp, and they're back at home for this one. The key question is how quickly can the team get emotionally prepared for the Volunteers. Coming off a big game often leads to a sub-par effort and the Vols seem to be on the upswing. This one could be closer than expectations.

Coin Flip: Florida

Prediction: Gators 34 Volunteers 27

7:00 pm Nebraska at #20 Michigan State (-5, 51 1/2) - The Cornhuskers played hard in their loss to Oklahoma last week, coming up short in a 23-16 loss, setting Nebraska back to a 2-2 mark.

The Spartans were all over the Hurricanes last week, romping to a 38-17 win. Their offense is versatile, while the defense seems to improve every week. Tough spot for Nebraska on the road in a Big Ten meeting.

Coin Flip: Michigan State

Prediction: Spartans 38 Cornhuskers 14

7:00 pm #25 Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-6, 46) - It seems like every year these two teams are on the verge of winning the Big 12, only to run into an Oklahoma or Texas or Iowa State to their demise. That said, the Cowboys have had a rough ride to this point, winning three close games, including last week's 21-20 thriller at Boise State.

Kansas State has had an easier time of it, whipping Stanford, 24-7, to open the season, then getting past Southern Illinois and Nevada in rather routine fashion. The Cowboys may have the better resume at this point, but the Wildcats are right there as Big 12 play commences. Dating back to 2010, the Cowboys hold a 7-4 edge straight up, but many of the games have been close calls, like last year's 20-18 Oklahoma State victory.

Coin Flip: Oklahoma State

Prediction: Cowboys 24 Wildcats 23

7:30 pm West Virginia at #4 Oklahoma (16 1/2, 59) - The 3-0 Sooners dropped from #3 to #4 in the polling with their 23-16 win over Nebraska last week and they are at home for the fourth straight game this week to welcome the Mountaineers.

West Virginia is fresh off a 27-21 win over Virginia Tech, but they stand at 2-1, having lost at Maryland in the opening weekend, 30-24. They'll be getting national exposure (ABC), and a chance to make a name for themselves. Oklahoma's defense doesn't appear to be anywhere near what it should be. Last year's scheduled meeting fo these two was first postponed, and then cancelled, so both should be looking forward to a reunion. Two touchdowns-plus seems a bit much this early in the season.

Coin Flip: West Virginia

Prediction: Sooners 35 Mountaineers 27

10:30 pm Arizona at #3 Oregon (-28, 58 1/2) - Arizona is 0-3 heading into this road contest with the Ducks, who are 3-0 and see the sky as the limit to how far their season can go. They've already defeated Fresno State and Ohio State, and took kind of a breather with a 48-7 win over Stony Brook.

The Ducks are very talented on both sides of the football. If anything, their defense needs to tighten up a bit, but playing the Wildcats may be all the confidence boosting they need.

Coin Flip: Oregon

Prediction: Ducks 48 Wildcats 13

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IdleGuy.com December 2024, Vol. 1 #11